SJK 5-5 Lahti – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SJK at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SJK vs Lahti encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 17 as SJK welcome Lahti to OmaSP Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 July 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SJK stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at OmaSP Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lahti — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lahti, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lahti have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
SJK carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, SJK have won 3, Lahti 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2024, ended 4–0 with SJK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SJK trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Lahti trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 58% versus Lahti 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 56% | Lahti 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.98 xG and Lahti 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.107 / defence 0.946 | Lahti attack 0.634 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.452. Data: 38 SJK games / 38 Lahti games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 62% | Draw 24% | Lahti 14%. Fair-value odds: SJK 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Lahti 7.14. The model has a clear lean to SJK (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SJK at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: SJK 70% | Lahti 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Lahti | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jul 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 62% | Draw 24% | Lahti 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG SJK 1.98 / Lahti 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.107 / def 0.946 | Lahti attack 0.634 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: SJK (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
SJK xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Lahti xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Lahti kick off?
SJK vs Lahti kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 July 2024 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Lahti?
SJK 5 - 5 Lahti.
Where is SJK vs Lahti being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Lahti part of?
SJK vs Lahti is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Lahti?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 62% chance of winning, Lahti a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Lahti?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SJK and Lahti will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Lahti have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Lahti?
Record (7 meetings): SJK 3W | Draws 2 | Lahti 2W.
What form are SJK and Lahti in?
SJK (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Lahti (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SJK's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Lahti's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Lahti's attack versus SJK's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
62%
1.61
24%
4.25
14%
6.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
SJK xG
Total xG
2.85
0.87
Lahti xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
6.92
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
14%
7.26
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
2%
50.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Lahti?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are SJK and Lahti expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for SJK and 0.87 for Lahti, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Lahti?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SJK's recent record stands at 20W 11D 12L from 43 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lahti, meanwhile, have gone 8W 14D 21L across 43 games — 0.88 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Lahti is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SJK by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lahti heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SJK have managed 11W 3D 7L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lahti's away record stands at 2W 9D 10L across 21 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SJK are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Lahti are on 0.93 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
Lahti
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and Lahti in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 20W 11D 12L in their last 43 games (1.65 PPG), while Lahti have gone 8W 14D 21L in their last 43 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Lahti away?
SJK's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.71 PPG; Lahti away: 0.71 PPG.
Have SJK or Lahti been keeping clean sheets recently?
SJK have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Lahti in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SJK and Lahti runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 13 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2024, when SJK won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SJK's record when hosting Lahti specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
SJK
3
Draws
2
Lahti
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Lahti?
From 9 meetings on record, SJK have won 4, Lahti have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Lahti last play each other?
They last met on 13 June 2026, when Lahti 2-3 SJK.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Lahti?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lahti are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 71%, Lahti 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (SJK) and 43% (Lahti).
On the defensive side: Lahti in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Lahti away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play Lahti?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of SJK's recent matches and 38% of Lahti's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SJK vs Lahti usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of SJK's recent games and 43% of Lahti's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SJK and Lahti tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Lahti in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SJK and Lahti share the spoils in a 5-5 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK and Lahti finished level at 5-5 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.98 xG and Lahti 0.87 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 5-5 for 10 actual goals. SJK beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lahti outscored their 0.87 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.11 / defence 0.95 against Lahti attack 0.63 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 62% | Draw 24% | Lahti 14%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 10, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 56%, Lahti 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Lahti's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SJK (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lahti (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.