SJK 1-3 Inter Turku – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this SJK vs Inter Turku fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Inter Turku travel to OmaSp Stadion to take on SJK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 May 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SJK — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
SJK's home record at OmaSp Stadion: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter Turku stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Inter Turku have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SJK 1.80 PPG, Inter Turku 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for SJK, 3 for Inter Turku and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SJK in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Inter Turku in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SJK 68% and Inter Turku 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SJK 73% | Inter Turku 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.33 xG and Inter Turku 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.084 / defence 0.905 | Inter Turku attack 0.933 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 0.995. Data: 28 SJK games / 29 Inter Turku games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 46% | Draw 32% | Inter Turku 22%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Inter Turku 4.55. SJK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 44% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, SJK are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SJK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: SJK 70% | Inter Turku 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Inter Turku | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: OmaSp Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 46% | Draw 32% | Inter Turku 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG SJK 1.33 / Inter Turku 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.084 / def 0.905 | Inter Turku attack 0.933 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.246 / away 0.995 • Poisson stance: SJK (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
SJK xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Inter Turku xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Inter Turku kick off?
SJK vs Inter Turku kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at OmaSp Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Inter Turku?
SJK 1 - 3 Inter Turku.
Where is SJK vs Inter Turku being played?
The match is being played at OmaSp Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Inter Turku part of?
SJK vs Inter Turku is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Inter Turku?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 46% chance of winning, Inter Turku a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Inter Turku?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both SJK and Inter Turku will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Inter Turku have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Inter Turku?
Record (8 meetings): SJK 4W | Draws 1 | Inter Turku 3W.
What form are SJK and Inter Turku in?
SJK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Inter Turku (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SJK's attack at 1.08x the league average against Inter Turku's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inter Turku's attack versus SJK's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
46%
2.16
32%
3.15
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
SJK xG
Total xG
2.17
0.84
Inter Turku xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
6%
17.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Inter Turku?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are SJK and Inter Turku expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for SJK and 0.84 for Inter Turku, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Inter Turku?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SJK come into this having played 60 games, going 28W 16D 16L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Inter Turku sit at 1.70 PPG from 60 outings (29W 15D 16L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SJK on 1.67 PPG, Inter Turku on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SJK's home form reads 14W 8D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Inter Turku have taken 1.41 points per game from 29 outings (12W 5D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
SJK are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Inter Turku are on 1.78 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SJK have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Current Season
Inter Turku
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and Inter Turku in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 28W 16D 16L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while Inter Turku have gone 29W 15D 16L in their last 60 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Inter Turku away?
SJK's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.72 PPG; Inter Turku away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Inter Turku won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SJK's record when hosting Inter Turku specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SJK
2
Draws
4
Inter Turku
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Inter Turku?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 4, Inter Turku have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Inter Turku last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when Inter Turku 1-1 SJK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Inter Turku are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 69%, Inter Turku 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for SJK and 55% for Inter Turku. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter Turku in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Inter Turku away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play Inter Turku?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of SJK's games and 52% of Inter Turku's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs Inter Turku usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of SJK's matches and 55% of Inter Turku's.
Do SJK and Inter Turku tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Inter Turku in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter Turku cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over SJK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter Turku beat SJK 1-3 at OmaSp Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.33 xG and Inter Turku 0.84 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Inter Turku outscored their 0.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.08 / defence 0.91 against Inter Turku attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 46% | Draw 32% | Inter Turku 22%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Inter Turku win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 73%, Inter Turku 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Inter Turku's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.67 PPG, Inter Turku 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inter Turku win broke the near-deadlock. SJK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter Turku (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.