Mariehamn 0-1 SJK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SJK at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mariehamn and SJK meet at Wiklöf Holding Arena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 24 June 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 0.77 xG and SJK 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.809 / defence 1.336 | SJK attack 0.735 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 0.878 / away 1.382. Data: 7 Mariehamn games / 8 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 21% | Draw 28% | SJK 51%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | SJK 1.96. SJK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SJK are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Jun 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 21% | Draw 28% | SJK 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Mariehamn 0.77 / SJK 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.809 / def 1.336 | SJK attack 0.735 / def 1.085 | league avg home 0.878 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: SJK (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.36
SJK xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs SJK kick off?
Mariehamn vs SJK kicked off at 16:30 on Thursday 24 June 2021 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs SJK?
Mariehamn 0 - 1 SJK.
Where is Mariehamn vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs SJK part of?
Mariehamn vs SJK is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 21% chance of winning, SJK a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Mariehamn and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and SJK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mariehamn and SJK in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.81x the league average against SJK's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SJK's attack (0.73x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 7/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
21%
4.71
28%
3.57
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.13
1.36
SJK xG
4.71
21%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
5%
18.26
23%
4.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 16.2 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.36 for SJK, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Pre-Season
SJK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SJK have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SJK won 0-4 on 21 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mariehamn
0
Draws
8
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 2, SJK have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when SJK 3-0 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as SJK edge out Mariehamn 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Mariehamn 0-1 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 0.77 xG and SJK 1.36 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.81 / defence 1.34 against SJK attack 0.73 / defence 1.08, drawn from 7/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 21% | Draw 28% | SJK 51%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.