Mariehamn 0-3 Lahti – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lahti at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs Lahti fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 9 as Mariehamn welcome Lahti to Wiklöf Holding Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 May 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.09 xG and Lahti 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 1.001 / defence 1.287 | Lahti attack 0.663 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 0.904 / away 1.577. Lahti bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Mariehamn's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Mariehamn games / 4 Lahti games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 30% | Draw 28% | Lahti 42%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Lahti 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lahti are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lahti offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Lahti | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 30% | Draw 28% | Lahti 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Mariehamn 1.09 / Lahti 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 1.001 / def 1.287 | Lahti attack 0.663 / def 1.210 | league avg home 0.904 / away 1.577 • Poisson stance: Lahti (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Lahti xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Lahti kick off?
Mariehamn vs Lahti kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 30 May 2021 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Mariehamn 0 - 3 Lahti.
Where is Mariehamn vs Lahti being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Lahti part of?
Mariehamn vs Lahti is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 30% chance of winning, Lahti a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lahti the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mariehamn and Lahti will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Lahti have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Lahti?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mariehamn and Lahti in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mariehamn's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Lahti's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Lahti's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lahti Win
30%
3.32
28%
3.62
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.44
1.35
Lahti xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
8%
12.74
14%
7.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Lahti expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.35 for Lahti, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Pre-Season
Lahti
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 20 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2022, when Mariehamn won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Lahti specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mariehamn
3
Draws
4
Lahti
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Lahti?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 3, Lahti have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Lahti last play each other?
They last met on 20 July 2026, when Mariehamn 0-2 Lahti.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Lahti?
Lahti have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Lahti away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Lahti run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lahti beat Mariehamn 0-3 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.09 xG and Lahti 1.35 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Mariehamn fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Lahti outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 1.00 / defence 1.29 against Lahti attack 0.66 / defence 1.21, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 30% | Draw 28% | Lahti 42%, with Lahti to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.