Mariehamn 4-2 Kooteepee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kooteepee at 35%, yet in-form Mariehamn provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mariehamn vs Kooteepee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mariehamn host Kooteepee at Wiklöf Holding Arena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 September 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Mariehamn have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn at Wiklöf Holding Arena this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kooteepee stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kooteepee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kooteepee have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Mariehamn carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Mariehamn have won 1, Kooteepee 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2021, ended 3–1 with Mariehamn winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Mariehamn in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 30% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Kooteepee in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 24% versus Kooteepee 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 43% | Kooteepee 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.05 xG and Kooteepee 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.640 / defence 1.276 | Kooteepee attack 0.749 / defence 1.722. League average goals — home 0.951 / away 1.113. Mariehamn's attack strength of 0.640 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kooteepee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.722 — this is suppressing Mariehamn's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Mariehamn games / 21 Kooteepee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 35% | Draw 30% | Kooteepee 35%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Kooteepee 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 20% | Kooteepee 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Kooteepee | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 35% | Draw 30% | Kooteepee 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Mariehamn 1.05 / Kooteepee 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.640 / def 1.276 | Kooteepee attack 0.749 / def 1.722 | league avg home 0.951 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Kooteepee xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Kooteepee kick off?
Mariehamn vs Kooteepee kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Kooteepee?
Mariehamn 4 - 2 Kooteepee.
Where is Mariehamn vs Kooteepee being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Kooteepee part of?
Mariehamn vs Kooteepee is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Kooteepee?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 35% chance of winning, Kooteepee a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Kooteepee?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Mariehamn and Kooteepee will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Kooteepee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Kooteepee?
Record (1 meetings): Mariehamn 1W | Draws 0 | Kooteepee 0W.
What form are Mariehamn and Kooteepee in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Kooteepee (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mariehamn's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Kooteepee's defensive record (1.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Kooteepee's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kooteepee Win
35%
2.89
30%
3.35
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.11
1.06
Kooteepee xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Kooteepee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Kooteepee expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.06 for Kooteepee, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Kooteepee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Mariehamn have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 6W 2D 13L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kooteepee's form line: 1W 5D 15L from 21 games, 0.38 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Kooteepee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Mariehamn are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kooteepee.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Mariehamn have posted 0.70 PPG from 10 outings (2W 1D 7L).
On the road, Kooteepee have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Mariehamn are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Kooteepee are on 0.76 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn have seen both teams score in 24% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Kooteepee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Kooteepee in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 6W 2D 13L in their last 21 games (0.95 PPG), while Kooteepee have gone 1W 5D 15L in their last 21 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Kooteepee away?
Mariehamn's home record (0.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 0.70 PPG; Kooteepee away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mariehamn and Kooteepee runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 4 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2021, when Mariehamn won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Kooteepee specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Mariehamn
3
Draws
1
Kooteepee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Kooteepee?
From 9 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 5, Kooteepee have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Kooteepee last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2025, when Kooteepee 1-1 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Kooteepee?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mariehamn tend to start slowly — only 30% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Mariehamn 20% BTTS, Kooteepee 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Mariehamn) and 60% (Kooteepee).
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 70% of games; Kooteepee in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Kooteepee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Kooteepee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 50% of Kooteepee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs Kooteepee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Mariehamn's recent games and 60% of Kooteepee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and Kooteepee tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 30% of their recent matches, Kooteepee in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mariehamn cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Kooteepee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat Kooteepee 4-2 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.05 xG and Kooteepee 1.06 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Mariehamn beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kooteepee outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.64 / defence 1.28 against Kooteepee attack 0.75 / defence 1.72, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 35% | Draw 30% | Kooteepee 35%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 43%, Kooteepee 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did.
Kooteepee's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mariehamn arrived the stronger side — 0.95 PPG against 0.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Kooteepee (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.