Mariehamn 0-1 Inter Turku – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Inter Turku (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mariehamn face Inter Turku.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mariehamn host Inter Turku at Wiklöf Holding Arena in Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 October 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Mariehamn — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn at Wiklöf Holding Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Mariehamn are significantly better at Wiklöf Holding Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Inter Turku have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Inter Turku, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Inter Turku have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Inter Turku — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Mariehamn have won 1, Inter Turku 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2024, ended 0–3 with Inter Turku winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Mariehamn in-play and half-time data (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Inter Turku in-play and half-time data (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 53% versus Inter Turku 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 58% | Inter Turku 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.05 xG and Inter Turku 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.734 / defence 1.106 | Inter Turku attack 1.084 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.248. Mariehamn's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Mariehamn games / 44 Inter Turku games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 26% | Draw 27% | Inter Turku 47%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Inter Turku 2.13. Inter Turku hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter Turku at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter Turku offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Mariehamn 40% | Inter Turku 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Inter Turku | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 26% | Draw 27% | Inter Turku 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Mariehamn 1.05 / Inter Turku 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.734 / def 1.106 | Inter Turku attack 1.084 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Inter Turku (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Inter Turku xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Inter Turku kick off?
Mariehamn vs Inter Turku kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Inter Turku?
Mariehamn 0 - 1 Inter Turku.
Where is Mariehamn vs Inter Turku being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Inter Turku part of?
Mariehamn vs Inter Turku is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Inter Turku?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 26% chance of winning, Inter Turku a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Inter Turku the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Inter Turku?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Mariehamn and Inter Turku will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Inter Turku have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Inter Turku?
Record (5 meetings): Mariehamn 1W | Draws 1 | Inter Turku 3W.
What form are Mariehamn and Inter Turku in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Inter Turku (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mariehamn's attack rating (0.73) and Inter Turku's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter Turku's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Turku Win
26%
3.87
27%
3.67
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.54
1.50
Inter Turku xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
6%
17.29
16%
6.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Inter Turku?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Inter Turku expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.50 for Inter Turku, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Inter Turku?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mariehamn's recent record stands at 12W 12D 29L from 53 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter Turku, meanwhile, have gone 20W 11D 22L across 53 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Inter Turku is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Inter Turku by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mariehamn heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mariehamn have managed 7W 7D 11L from 25 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Inter Turku's away record stands at 6W 5D 14L across 25 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Inter Turku's season.
The Goals Picture
Mariehamn are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Inter Turku are on 1.45 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Inter Turku
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Inter Turku in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 12W 12D 29L in their last 53 games (0.91 PPG), while Inter Turku have gone 20W 11D 22L in their last 53 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Inter Turku away?
Mariehamn's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.12 PPG; Inter Turku away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mariehamn and Inter Turku runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Inter Turku go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2024, when Inter Turku won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Inter Turku specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Mariehamn
3
Draws
6
Inter Turku
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Inter Turku?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 1, Inter Turku have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Inter Turku last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Mariehamn 0-2 Inter Turku.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Inter Turku?
Inter Turku have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Inter Turku are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 44%, Inter Turku 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Mariehamn) and 56% (Inter Turku). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 48% of games; Inter Turku in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Inter Turku away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Inter Turku?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 48% of Inter Turku's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs Inter Turku usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Mariehamn's matches and 56% of Inter Turku's.
Do Mariehamn and Inter Turku tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Inter Turku in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inter Turku edge out Mariehamn 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter Turku beat Mariehamn 0-1 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Relegation Round - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.05 xG and Inter Turku 1.50 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mariehamn fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.73 / defence 1.11 against Inter Turku attack 1.08 / defence 0.88, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 26% | Draw 27% | Inter Turku 47%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 58%, Inter Turku 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Inter Turku's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter Turku arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Inter Turku (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.