Mariehamn 0-1 HJK Helsinki – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates HJK Helsinki at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
HJK Helsinki make the trip to Wiklöf Holding Arena to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Monday 14 June 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 0.70 xG and HJK Helsinki 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.885 / defence 1.417 | HJK Helsinki attack 0.935 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 0.888 / away 1.576. Data: 6 Mariehamn games / 7 HJK Helsinki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 11% | Draw 19% | HJK Helsinki 70%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 9.09 | Draw 5.26 | HJK Helsinki 1.43. The model has a clear lean to HJK Helsinki (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates HJK Helsinki as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Monday 14 Jun 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 11% | Draw 19% | HJK Helsinki 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 44% | xG Mariehamn 0.70 / HJK Helsinki 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.885 / def 1.417 | HJK Helsinki attack 0.935 / def 0.887 | league avg home 0.888 / away 1.576 • Poisson stance: HJK Helsinki (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
2.09
HJK Helsinki xG
44%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki kick off?
Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki kicked off at 16:30 on Monday 14 June 2021 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki?
Mariehamn 0 - 1 HJK Helsinki.
Where is Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki part of?
Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 11% chance of winning, HJK Helsinki a 70% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making HJK Helsinki the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mariehamn's attack rating (0.89) and HJK Helsinki's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — HJK Helsinki's attack (0.94x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 2.09.
These ratings are built from 6/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 1-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
HJK Helsinki Win
11%
8.90
19%
5.27
70%
1.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
0 – 3
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.79
2.09
HJK Helsinki xG
8.90
11%
Home win
5.27
19%
Draw
1.43
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
12%
8.08
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
1%
71.86
35%
2.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Mariehamn and 2.09 for HJK Helsinki, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Pre-Season
HJK Helsinki
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: HJK Helsinki have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: HJK Helsinki won 8-2 on 24 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against HJK Helsinki — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Mariehamn
1
Draws
8
HJK Helsinki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 1, HJK Helsinki have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when Mariehamn 0-4 HJK Helsinki.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki?
HJK Helsinki have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / HJK Helsinki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as HJK Helsinki edge out Mariehamn 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
HJK Helsinki beat Mariehamn 0-1 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 0.70 xG and HJK Helsinki 2.09 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. HJK Helsinki landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.89 / defence 1.42 against HJK Helsinki attack 0.94 / defence 0.89, drawn from 6/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 11% | Draw 19% | HJK Helsinki 70%, with HJK Helsinki to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.