Mariehamn 2-1 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haka at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mariehamn vs Haka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Relegation Round - 2 as Mariehamn welcome Haka to Wiklöf Holding Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 September 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Mariehamn — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Wiklöf Holding Arena this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Haka have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Haka — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Mariehamn have won 2, Haka 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mariehamn trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Haka trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mariehamn 62% and Haka 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 50% | Haka 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.16 xG and Haka 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.680 / defence 1.092 | Haka attack 0.861 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.278. Mariehamn's attack strength of 0.680 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Haka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Mariehamn's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Mariehamn games / 44 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 35% | Draw 29% | Haka 37%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Haka 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haka at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 40% | Haka 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 35% | Draw 29% | Haka 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Mariehamn 1.16 / Haka 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.680 / def 1.092 | Haka attack 0.861 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Haka (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Haka xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Haka kick off?
Mariehamn vs Haka kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 22 September 2023 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Haka?
Mariehamn 2 - 1 Haka.
Where is Mariehamn vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Haka part of?
Mariehamn vs Haka is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 35% chance of winning, Haka a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mariehamn and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Haka?
Record (4 meetings): Mariehamn 2W | Draws 1 | Haka 1W.
What form are Mariehamn and Haka in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Haka (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mariehamn's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
35%
2.88
29%
3.49
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.37
1.20
Haka xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.20 for Haka, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Mariehamn have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 12W 13D 25L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haka's form line: 18W 16D 16L from 50 games, 1.40 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Haka are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mariehamn.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Mariehamn have posted 1.04 PPG from 25 outings (6W 8D 11L).
On the road, Haka have gone 9W 4D 12L from 25 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Mariehamn are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.38 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Haka in 62%.
Last 50 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Haka in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 12W 13D 25L in their last 50 games (0.98 PPG), while Haka have gone 18W 16D 16L in their last 50 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Haka away?
Haka's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.04 PPG; Haka away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mariehamn and Haka runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 13 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Jul 2024, when Haka won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Haka specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mariehamn
3
Draws
3
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 4, Haka have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2025, when Mariehamn 1-1 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Haka?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 60%, Haka 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Mariehamn) and 60% (Haka).
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 28% of games; Haka in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 44% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Mariehamn's recent games and 60% of Haka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and Haka tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Haka in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mariehamn defy the odds to beat Haka 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat Haka 2-1 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Relegation Round - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.16 xG and Haka 1.20 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Mariehamn beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.68 / defence 1.09 against Haka attack 0.86 / defence 1.29, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 35% | Draw 29% | Haka 37%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Mariehamn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 50%, Haka 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Haka's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Haka arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Mariehamn winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.