KuPS 0-1 VPS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates KuPS at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KuPS vs VPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees VPS travel to Väre Areena to take on KuPS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 July 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, KuPS stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Väre Areena, KuPS have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Väre Areena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Väre Areena this season.
VPS — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VPS's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
KuPS are in the better shape of the two on current Veikkausliiga data — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for KuPS, 0 for VPS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jun 2023, ended 2–0 with KuPS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
KuPS in-play tendencies (42 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
VPS in-play tendencies (42 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 40% versus VPS 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 40% | VPS 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.49 xG and VPS 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 0.967 / defence 0.752 | VPS attack 0.828 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.059. VPS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing KuPS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. KuPS's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 KuPS games / 35 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 56% | Draw 28% | VPS 15%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | VPS 6.67. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, KuPS are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: KuPS 20% | VPS 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jul 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 56% | Draw 28% | VPS 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 38% | xG KuPS 1.49 / VPS 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 0.967 / def 0.752 | VPS attack 0.828 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: KuPS (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.66
VPS xG
38%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs VPS kick off?
KuPS vs VPS kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 July 2023 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs VPS?
KuPS 0 - 1 VPS.
Where is KuPS vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs VPS part of?
KuPS vs VPS is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 56% chance of winning, VPS a 15% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both KuPS and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and VPS?
Record (1 meetings): KuPS 1W | Draws 0 | VPS 0W.
What form are KuPS and VPS in?
KuPS (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. VPS (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates KuPS's attack at 0.97x the league average against VPS's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus KuPS's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 2-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
56%
1.77
28%
3.55
15%
6.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.15
0.66
VPS xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
6.49
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
3%
28.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 11.4 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are KuPS and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for KuPS and 0.66 for VPS, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs VPS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
KuPS's recent record stands at 27W 7D 8L from 42 games, a 2.10 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VPS, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 21L across 42 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours KuPS by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VPS heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, KuPS have managed 15W 4D 3L from 22 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VPS's away record stands at 9W 3D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
KuPS are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.48 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
VPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and VPS in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 27W 7D 8L in their last 42 games (2.10 PPG), while VPS have gone 14W 7D 21L in their last 42 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or VPS away?
KuPS's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.23 PPG; VPS away: 1.36 PPG.
Have KuPS or VPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, VPS in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between KuPS and VPS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
KuPS's record when hosting VPS specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KuPS
2
Draws
3
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, VPS have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when KuPS 3-1 VPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and VPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 41%, VPS 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (KuPS) and 68% (VPS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play VPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of KuPS's recent matches and 59% of VPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs VPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of KuPS's matches and 68% of VPS's.
Do KuPS and VPS tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, VPS in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VPS defy the odds to beat KuPS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat KuPS 0-1 at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 14, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.49 xG and VPS 0.66 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. KuPS fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 0.97 / defence 0.75 against VPS attack 0.83 / defence 1.23, drawn from 37/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 56% | Draw 28% | VPS 15%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a VPS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 40%, VPS 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (42 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
VPS's trading profile (42 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with VPS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward. VPS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.