KuPS 4-0 Kooteepee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KuPS vs Kooteepee encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KuPS host Kooteepee at Väre Areena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 August 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
KuPS — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, KuPS have posted 5W 2D 1L at Väre Areena — 2.12 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Väre Areena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kooteepee stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kooteepee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kooteepee have gone 1W 3D 4L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.
KuPS carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
KuPS in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Kooteepee in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 36% versus Kooteepee 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 36% | Kooteepee 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.46 xG and Kooteepee 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.110 / defence 0.980 | Kooteepee attack 0.816 / defence 1.521. League average goals — home 0.867 / away 1.065. Kooteepee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.521 — this is suppressing KuPS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 KuPS games / 15 Kooteepee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 52% | Draw 27% | Kooteepee 22%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Kooteepee 4.55. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KuPS at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KuPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: KuPS 38% | Kooteepee 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Kooteepee | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 52% | Draw 27% | Kooteepee 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG KuPS 1.46 / Kooteepee 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.110 / def 0.980 | Kooteepee attack 0.816 / def 1.521 | league avg home 0.867 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: KuPS (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Kooteepee xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs Kooteepee kick off?
KuPS vs Kooteepee kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Kooteepee?
KuPS 4 - 0 Kooteepee.
Where is KuPS vs Kooteepee being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Kooteepee part of?
KuPS vs Kooteepee is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Kooteepee?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 52% chance of winning, Kooteepee a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Kooteepee?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both KuPS and Kooteepee will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs Kooteepee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Kooteepee?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KuPS and Kooteepee in?
KuPS (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Kooteepee (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates KuPS's attack at 1.11x the league average against Kooteepee's defence at 1.52x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kooteepee's attack versus KuPS's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
52%
1.94
27%
3.76
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.32
0.85
Kooteepee xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
5%
19.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Kooteepee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are KuPS and Kooteepee expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for KuPS and 0.85 for Kooteepee, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Kooteepee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
KuPS come into this having played 14 games, going 9W 2D 3L for 2.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kooteepee sit at 0.50 PPG from 14 outings (1W 4D 9L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Kooteepee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.57 PPG clear of Kooteepee — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
KuPS's home form reads 5W 1D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Kooteepee have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
KuPS are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Kooteepee are on 0.79 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Kooteepee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and Kooteepee in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 9W 2D 3L in their last 14 games (2.07 PPG), while Kooteepee have gone 1W 4D 9L in their last 14 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Kooteepee away?
KuPS's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.29 PPG; Kooteepee away: 0.71 PPG.
Have KuPS or Kooteepee been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Kooteepee in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 9 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
KuPS go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2021, when KuPS won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KuPS's record when hosting Kooteepee specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
KuPS
1
Draws
0
Kooteepee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Kooteepee?
From 6 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, Kooteepee have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Kooteepee last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2025, when Kooteepee 0-2 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Kooteepee?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 43%, Kooteepee 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (KuPS) and 57% (Kooteepee).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Kooteepee in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Kooteepee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play Kooteepee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of KuPS's recent matches and 43% of Kooteepee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs Kooteepee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of KuPS's recent games and 57% of Kooteepee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and Kooteepee tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Kooteepee in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant KuPS run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Kooteepee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Kooteepee 4-0 at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 19, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.46 xG and Kooteepee 0.85 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. KuPS beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kooteepee landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.11 / defence 0.98 against Kooteepee attack 0.82 / defence 1.52, drawn from 14/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 52% | Draw 27% | Kooteepee 22%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 36%, Kooteepee 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kooteepee's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. Kooteepee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.