Inter Turku 4-0 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inter Turku vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 5 as Inter Turku welcome Mariehamn to Veritas Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Inter Turku — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Inter Turku, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Veritas Stadion, Inter Turku have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mariehamn stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Inter Turku) versus 1.60 (Mariehamn). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Inter Turku trading profile (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Mariehamn trading profile (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter Turku 52% versus Mariehamn 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter Turku 56% | Mariehamn 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter Turku 1.22 xG and Mariehamn 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter Turku attack 0.925 / defence 0.991 | Mariehamn attack 0.888 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.458. Data: 26 Inter Turku games / 26 Mariehamn games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Inter Turku 35% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 38%. Fair-value odds: Inter Turku 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Mariehamn 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mariehamn as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Inter Turku 50% | Mariehamn 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter Turku vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Veritas Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter Turku 35% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Inter Turku 1.22 / Mariehamn 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Inter Turku attack 0.925 / def 0.991 | Mariehamn attack 0.888 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Inter Turku xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Mariehamn xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter Turku vs Mariehamn kick off?
Inter Turku vs Mariehamn kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 29 April 2022 at Veritas Stadion.
What was the final score in Inter Turku vs Mariehamn?
Inter Turku 4 - 0 Mariehamn.
Where is Inter Turku vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Veritas Stadion.
What competition is Inter Turku vs Mariehamn part of?
Inter Turku vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Inter Turku vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Inter Turku a 35% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter Turku vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Inter Turku and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Inter Turku vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter Turku and Mariehamn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Inter Turku and Mariehamn in?
Inter Turku (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Mariehamn (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Inter Turku's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Mariehamn's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Inter Turku's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (26/26 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
35%
2.86
27%
3.71
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Inter Turku xG
Total xG
2.50
1.28
Mariehamn xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
10%
10.32
11%
8.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter Turku vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Inter Turku and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Inter Turku and 1.28 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter Turku vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Inter Turku have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 14W 3D 10L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Inter Turku is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn's form line: 9W 3D 15L from 27 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Inter Turku are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mariehamn.
Venue Form
On home soil, Inter Turku have posted 1.86 PPG from 14 outings (8W 2D 4L).
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 5W 2D 7L from 14 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter Turku come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Inter Turku are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.04 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter Turku
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter Turku and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Inter Turku have gone 14W 3D 10L in their last 27 games (1.67 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 9W 3D 15L in their last 27 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter Turku at home or Mariehamn away?
Inter Turku's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter Turku at home: 1.86 PPG; Mariehamn away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Inter Turku or Mariehamn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter Turku have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mariehamn in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Inter Turku have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2024, when Inter Turku won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inter Turku's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Inter Turku
3
Draws
1
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter Turku and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter Turku have won 6, Mariehamn have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Inter Turku and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Mariehamn 0-2 Inter Turku.
Who has won more matches between Inter Turku and Mariehamn?
Inter Turku have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inter Turku see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter Turku 50%, Mariehamn 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Inter Turku) and 43% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: Inter Turku keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Mariehamn in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter Turku home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter Turku play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Inter Turku's recent matches and 36% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inter Turku vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Inter Turku's recent games and 43% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inter Turku and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Inter Turku have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Inter Turku run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter Turku beat Mariehamn 4-0 at Veritas Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter Turku 1.22 xG and Mariehamn 1.28 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Inter Turku beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mariehamn landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter Turku attack 0.93 / defence 0.99 against Mariehamn attack 0.89 / defence 1.00, drawn from 26/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Inter Turku 35% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 38%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Inter Turku win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter Turku 56%, Mariehamn 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter Turku's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mariehamn's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter Turku arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Inter Turku (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.