Ilves 2-3 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VPS at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs VPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Relegation Round - 1 as Ilves welcome VPS to Ratinan Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ilves — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves at Ratinan Stadion this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Ilves are significantly better at Ratinan Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VPS stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, VPS have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Ilves) versus 0.60 (VPS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ilves register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, VPS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ilves, 1 for VPS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 0–3 with VPS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ilves in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
VPS in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 64% versus VPS 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 64% | VPS 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.47 xG and VPS 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 0.890 / defence 1.211 | VPS attack 1.143 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.450. Data: 44 Ilves games / 22 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 27% | Draw 23% | VPS 49%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | VPS 2.04. VPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VPS at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.48 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 60% | VPS 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Ratinan Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 27% | Draw 23% | VPS 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Ilves 1.47 / VPS 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 0.890 / def 1.211 | VPS attack 1.143 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: VPS (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
2.01
VPS xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs VPS kick off?
Ilves vs VPS kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Ratinan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs VPS?
Ilves 2 - 3 VPS.
Where is Ilves vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Ratinan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs VPS part of?
Ilves vs VPS is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 27% chance of winning, VPS a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Ilves and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and VPS?
Record (1 meetings): Ilves 0W | Draws 0 | VPS 1W.
What form are Ilves and VPS in?
Ilves (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. VPS (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ilves's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against VPS's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus Ilves's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
27%
3.65
23%
4.32
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 1
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Ilves xG
Total xG
3.48
2.01
VPS xG
3.65
27%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
13%
7.45
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
4%
27.16
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Ilves and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Ilves and 2.01 for VPS, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ilves's recent record stands at 6W 7D 9L from 22 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VPS, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 12L across 22 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ilves on 1.14 PPG, VPS on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ilves have managed 4W 1D 6L from 11 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VPS's away record stands at 5W 1D 5L across 11 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.00 PPG overall record — VPS travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Ilves are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.77 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ilves have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
VPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and VPS in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 6W 7D 9L in their last 22 games (1.14 PPG), while VPS have gone 6W 4D 12L in their last 22 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or VPS away?
VPS's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.18 PPG; VPS away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when VPS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ilves's record when hosting VPS specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ilves
1
Draws
5
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 4, VPS have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when VPS 3-2 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and VPS?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 64%, VPS 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Ilves and 73% for VPS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 73% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ilves have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play VPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Ilves's games and 54% of VPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ilves vs VPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Ilves's matches and 73% of VPS's.
Do Ilves and VPS tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, VPS in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VPS edge out Ilves 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat Ilves 2-3 at Ratinan Stadion, Relegation Round - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.47 xG and VPS 2.01 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. VPS outscored their 2.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 0.89 / defence 1.21 against VPS attack 1.14 / defence 1.17, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 27% | Draw 23% | VPS 49%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 64%, VPS 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
VPS's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.14 PPG, VPS 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VPS win broke the near-deadlock. Ilves (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.