Ilves 0-1 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs VPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Ilves welcome VPS to Tammela Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ilves — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves at Tammela Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tammela Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VPS stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, VPS have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Ilves) versus 1.60 (VPS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Ilves, 4 for VPS and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with VPS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ilves in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
VPS in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ilves 64% and VPS 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 70% | VPS 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.52 xG and VPS 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.110 / defence 0.840 | VPS attack 1.017 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.153. Data: 42 Ilves games / 42 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 49% | Draw 26% | VPS 24%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | VPS 4.17. Ilves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ilves at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ilves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ilves 40% | VPS 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Tammela Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 49% | Draw 26% | VPS 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Ilves 1.52 / VPS 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.110 / def 0.840 | VPS attack 1.017 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Ilves (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
0.98
VPS xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs VPS kick off?
Ilves vs VPS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Tammela Stadium.
What was the final score in Ilves vs VPS?
Ilves 0 - 1 VPS.
Where is Ilves vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Tammela Stadium.
What competition is Ilves vs VPS part of?
Ilves vs VPS is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 49% chance of winning, VPS a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ilves and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and VPS?
Record (9 meetings): Ilves 4W | Draws 1 | VPS 4W.
What form are Ilves and VPS in?
Ilves (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. VPS (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ilves's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against VPS's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus Ilves's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
49%
2.02
26%
3.83
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Ilves xG
Total xG
2.50
0.98
VPS xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
5%
18.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Ilves and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Ilves and 0.98 for VPS, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ilves's recent record stands at 22W 10D 15L from 47 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VPS, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 18L across 47 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ilves on 1.62 PPG, VPS on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ilves have managed 14W 5D 4L from 23 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Ilves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
VPS's away record stands at 6W 6D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ilves are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.38 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ilves have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; VPS in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
VPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and VPS in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 22W 10D 15L in their last 47 games (1.62 PPG), while VPS have gone 16W 13D 18L in their last 47 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or VPS away?
Ilves's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 2.04 PPG; VPS away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: VPS have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Ilves's record when hosting VPS specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ilves
1
Draws
5
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 4, VPS have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Ilves 0-1 VPS.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and VPS?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ilves at 61%, VPS at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Ilves and 61% for VPS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play VPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Ilves's games and 70% of VPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ilves vs VPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Ilves's matches and 61% of VPS's.
Do Ilves and VPS tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, VPS in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VPS defy the odds to beat Ilves 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat Ilves 0-1 at Tammela Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.52 xG and VPS 0.98 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ilves fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.11 / defence 0.84 against VPS attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 49% | Draw 26% | VPS 24%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a VPS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 70%, VPS 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
VPS's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.62 PPG, VPS 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VPS win broke the near-deadlock. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward. VPS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.