Ilves 3-2 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs VPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 16 as Ilves welcome VPS to Tammelan Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 July 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ilves — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves at Tammelan Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VPS stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, VPS have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Ilves) versus 1.20 (VPS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ilves register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, VPS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ilves, 3 for VPS and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Jun 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ilves in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
VPS in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 54% versus VPS 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 51% | VPS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 2.03 xG and VPS 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.385 / defence 0.937 | VPS attack 0.948 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.445. Ilves carry an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Ilves games / 37 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 53% | Draw 24% | VPS 22%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | VPS 4.55. Ilves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ilves at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ilves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 60% | VPS 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Tammelan Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 53% | Draw 24% | VPS 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Ilves 2.03 / VPS 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.385 / def 0.937 | VPS attack 0.948 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Ilves (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.28
VPS xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs VPS kick off?
Ilves vs VPS kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Tammelan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs VPS?
Ilves 3 - 2 VPS.
Where is Ilves vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Tammelan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs VPS part of?
Ilves vs VPS is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 53% chance of winning, VPS a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Ilves and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and VPS?
Record (5 meetings): Ilves 1W | Draws 1 | VPS 3W.
What form are Ilves and VPS in?
Ilves (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. VPS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ilves's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against VPS's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus Ilves's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.10
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Ilves xG
Total xG
3.31
1.28
VPS xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
13%
7.60
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
3%
33.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Ilves and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Ilves and 1.28 for VPS, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ilves's recent record stands at 15W 14D 14L from 43 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VPS, meanwhile, have gone 24W 7D 12L across 43 games — 1.84 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours VPS by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ilves heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ilves have managed 8W 7D 6L from 21 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VPS's away record stands at 13W 2D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ilves are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.58 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
VPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and VPS in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 15W 14D 14L in their last 43 games (1.37 PPG), while VPS have gone 24W 7D 12L in their last 43 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or VPS away?
VPS's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.48 PPG; VPS away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Ilves or VPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, VPS in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when VPS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ilves's record when hosting VPS specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ilves
1
Draws
5
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 4, VPS have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when VPS 3-2 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and VPS?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
VPS see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 62%, VPS 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Ilves) and 52% (VPS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VPS in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play VPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Ilves's recent matches and 48% of VPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ilves vs VPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ilves's matches and 52% of VPS's.
Do Ilves and VPS tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, VPS in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ilves edge out VPS 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat VPS 3-2 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 2.03 xG and VPS 1.28 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ilves beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.39 / defence 0.94 against VPS attack 0.95 / defence 0.93, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 53% | Draw 24% | VPS 22%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 51%, VPS 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
VPS's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, VPS arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Ilves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. VPS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.