Ilves 2-3 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to Ratinan Stadion to face Ilves in Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ilves have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ilves have posted 3W 1D 6L at Ratinan Stadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Ilves against 1.20 for Mariehamn. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Ilves, 0 for Mariehamn and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 5–1 with Ilves winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Mariehamn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 51% versus Mariehamn 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 51% | Mariehamn 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.25 xG and Mariehamn 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 0.897 / defence 1.200 | Mariehamn attack 0.850 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.450. Data: 44 Ilves games / 44 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 31% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 42%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Mariehamn 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mariehamn if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ilves 60% | Mariehamn 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Ratinan Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 31% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Ilves 1.25 / Mariehamn 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 0.897 / def 1.200 | Mariehamn attack 0.850 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Mariehamn xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs Mariehamn kick off?
Ilves vs Mariehamn kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Ratinan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Ilves 2 - 3 Mariehamn.
Where is Ilves vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Ratinan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs Mariehamn part of?
Ilves vs Mariehamn is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 31% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ilves and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Mariehamn?
Record (1 meetings): Ilves 1W | Draws 0 | Mariehamn 0W.
What form are Ilves and Mariehamn in?
Ilves (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Mariehamn (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ilves's attack at 0.90x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.85x) against Ilves's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
31%
3.22
27%
3.65
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Ilves xG
Total xG
2.73
1.48
Mariehamn xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
7%
14.11
12%
8.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Ilves and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Ilves and 1.48 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ilves's recent record stands at 18W 10D 23L from 51 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 26L across 51 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Ilves against 1.12 for Mariehamn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ilves have managed 12W 2D 11L from 25 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 7W 4D 14L across 25 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ilves are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.20 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 18W 10D 23L in their last 51 games (1.25 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 16W 9D 26L in their last 51 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or Mariehamn away?
Ilves's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.52 PPG; Mariehamn away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 1-5 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ilves
3
Draws
2
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 5, Mariehamn have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Mariehamn 2-2 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and Mariehamn?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 44%, Mariehamn 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Ilves) and 40% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ilves have failed to score in 28% of games; Mariehamn in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ilves's recent matches and 40% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ilves vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Ilves's recent games and 40% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ilves and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mariehamn edge out Ilves 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat Ilves 2-3 at Ratinan Stadion, Relegation Round - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.25 xG and Mariehamn 1.48 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Mariehamn outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 0.90 / defence 1.20 against Mariehamn attack 0.85 / defence 0.99, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 31% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 42%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 51%, Mariehamn 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.25 PPG, Mariehamn 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. Ilves (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.