Honka 1-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Honka at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Honka vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to Tapiolan Urheilupuisto to face Honka in Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Honka (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Honka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Honka have posted 4W 2D 4L at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Mariehamn have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Honka against 1.20 for Mariehamn. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Honka 1W, Mariehamn 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 3–1 with Honka winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Honka half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Mariehamn half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Honka 54% versus Mariehamn 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Honka 50% | Mariehamn 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Honka 1.13 xG and Mariehamn 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Honka attack 0.939 / defence 1.163 | Mariehamn attack 0.881 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 0.965 / away 1.079. Mariehamn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Honka's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Honka games / 22 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Honka 36% | Draw 29% | Mariehamn 35%. Fair-value odds: Honka 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Mariehamn 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Honka at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Honka if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Honka 50% | Mariehamn 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Honka vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Tapiolan Urheilupuisto • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Honka 36% | Draw 29% | Mariehamn 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Honka 1.13 / Mariehamn 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Honka attack 0.939 / def 1.163 | Mariehamn attack 0.881 / def 1.250 | league avg home 0.965 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Honka (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Honka xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Mariehamn xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Honka vs Mariehamn kick off?
Honka vs Mariehamn kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto.
What was the final score in Honka vs Mariehamn?
Honka 1 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is Honka vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto.
What competition is Honka vs Mariehamn part of?
Honka vs Mariehamn is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Honka vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Honka a 36% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Honka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Honka vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Honka and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Honka vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Honka and Mariehamn?
Record (2 meetings): Honka 1W | Draws 0 | Mariehamn 1W.
What form are Honka and Mariehamn in?
Honka (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Mariehamn (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Honka's attack rating (0.94) and Mariehamn's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.88x) against Honka's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Honka Win
36%
2.76
29%
3.47
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Honka xG
Total xG
2.24
1.11
Mariehamn xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Honka vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Honka and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Honka and 1.11 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Honka vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Honka come into this having played 22 games, going 7W 5D 10L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Honka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mariehamn sit at 1.05 PPG from 22 outings (7W 2D 13L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Honka against 1.05 for Mariehamn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Honka's home form reads 4W 2D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Mariehamn have taken 1.18 points per game from 11 outings (4W 1D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Honka are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 0.91 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn in 27%.
Last 22 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Honka
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Honka and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Honka have gone 7W 5D 10L in their last 22 games (1.18 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 7W 2D 13L in their last 22 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Honka at home or Mariehamn away?
Honka's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Honka at home: 1.27 PPG; Mariehamn away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Honka have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Honka have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Honka
3
Draws
1
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Honka and Mariehamn?
From 7 meetings on record, Honka have won 3, Mariehamn have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Honka and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 18 August 2023, when Mariehamn 0-1 Honka.
Who has won more matches between Honka and Mariehamn?
Honka have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Honka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Honka 46%, Mariehamn 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Honka) and 46% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: Honka have failed to score in 46% of games; Mariehamn in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Honka home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Honka play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Honka's recent matches and 27% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Honka vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Honka's recent games and 46% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Honka and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Honka have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Honka and Mariehamn share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Honka and Mariehamn finished level at 1-1 at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto, Relegation Round - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Honka 1.13 xG and Mariehamn 1.11 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Honka attack 0.94 / defence 1.16 against Mariehamn attack 0.88 / defence 1.25, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Honka 36% | Draw 29% | Mariehamn 35%, with Honka to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Honka 50%, Mariehamn 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Honka's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Honka 1.18 PPG, Mariehamn 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.