Haka 0-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Haka at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haka vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 2 as Haka welcome Mariehamn to Tehtaan kenttä. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haka stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haka have posted 2W 4D 4L at Tehtaan kenttä — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Mariehamn have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Mariehamn have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Haka 0.90 PPG, Mariehamn 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Haka register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Mariehamn in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Haka, 3 for Mariehamn and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2024, ended 3–0 with Haka winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Haka in-play tendencies (56 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Mariehamn in-play tendencies (56 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 62% versus Mariehamn 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 59% | Mariehamn 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.95 xG and Mariehamn 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 1.165 / defence 1.066 | Mariehamn attack 0.945 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.423. Data: 23 Haka games / 23 Mariehamn games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Haka 50% | Draw 22% | Mariehamn 28%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Mariehamn 3.57. Haka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haka are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Haka 80% | Mariehamn 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (23 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 50% | Draw 22% | Mariehamn 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Haka 1.95 / Mariehamn 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 1.165 / def 1.066 | Mariehamn attack 0.945 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.637 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: Haka (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Mariehamn xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs Mariehamn kick off?
Haka vs Mariehamn kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Mariehamn?
Haka 0 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is Haka vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Mariehamn part of?
Haka vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 50% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Haka and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Mariehamn?
Record (7 meetings): Haka 3W | Draws 1 | Mariehamn 3W.
What form are Haka and Mariehamn in?
Haka (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Haka's attack rating (1.17) and Mariehamn's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (23/23 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
50%
2.02
22%
4.55
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Haka xG
Total xG
3.38
1.43
Mariehamn xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
14%
7.01
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
4%
24.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Haka and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Haka and 1.43 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haka come into this having played 56 games, going 19W 17D 20L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Mariehamn sit at 0.93 PPG from 56 outings (13W 13D 30L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haka on 1.32 PPG, Mariehamn on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Haka's home form reads 10W 14D 5L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Mariehamn have taken 0.79 points per game from 29 outings (6W 5D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Haka are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.04 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Current Season
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 19W 17D 20L in their last 56 games (1.32 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 13W 13D 30L in their last 56 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or Mariehamn away?
Haka's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.52 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 13 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Jul 2024, when Haka won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haka's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haka
3
Draws
4
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 3, Mariehamn have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2025, when Mariehamn 1-1 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Haka and Mariehamn?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Haka at 76%, Mariehamn at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Haka) and 62% (Mariehamn). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Haka's games and 62% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haka vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Haka's matches and 62% of Mariehamn's.
Do Haka and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mariehamn defy the odds to beat Haka 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat Haka 0-1 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.95 xG and Mariehamn 1.43 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Haka fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.17 / defence 1.07 against Mariehamn attack 0.94 / defence 1.02, drawn from 23/23 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Haka 50% | Draw 22% | Mariehamn 28%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Mariehamn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 59%, Mariehamn 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (56 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Mariehamn's trading profile (56 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.32 PPG, Mariehamn 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. Haka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward. Mariehamn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.