FF Jaro 1-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FF Jaro vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FF Jaro and Mariehamn meet at Jakobstads Centralplan in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 July 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
FF Jaro's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FF Jaro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FF Jaro have posted 2W 1D 3L at Jakobstads Centralplan — 1.17 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Mariehamn (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for FF Jaro, 1.20 for Mariehamn — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: FF Jaro 1W, Mariehamn 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 2–0 with FF Jaro winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FF Jaro — key trading statistics (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FF Jaro 47% versus Mariehamn 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FF Jaro 47% | Mariehamn 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FF Jaro 1.16 xG and Mariehamn 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FF Jaro attack 0.730 / defence 1.131 | Mariehamn attack 0.734 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.540. FF Jaro's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 FF Jaro games / 36 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FF Jaro 33% | Draw 28% | Mariehamn 39%. Fair-value odds: FF Jaro 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Mariehamn 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mariehamn at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mariehamn if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FF Jaro 50% | Mariehamn 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FF Jaro vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Jakobstads Centralplan • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Jul 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FF Jaro 33% | Draw 28% | Mariehamn 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG FF Jaro 1.16 / Mariehamn 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: FF Jaro attack 0.730 / def 1.131 | Mariehamn attack 0.734 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.540 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
FF Jaro xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Mariehamn xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FF Jaro vs Mariehamn kick off?
FF Jaro vs Mariehamn kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 July 2025 at Jakobstads Centralplan.
What was the final score in FF Jaro vs Mariehamn?
FF Jaro 1 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is FF Jaro vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Jakobstads Centralplan.
What competition is FF Jaro vs Mariehamn part of?
FF Jaro vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win FF Jaro vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives FF Jaro a 33% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in FF Jaro vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FF Jaro and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will FF Jaro vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between FF Jaro and Mariehamn?
Record (1 meetings): FF Jaro 1W | Draws 0 | Mariehamn 0W.
What form are FF Jaro and Mariehamn in?
FF Jaro (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FF Jaro's attack at 0.73x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.73x) against FF Jaro's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 13/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
33%
3.02
28%
3.52
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
FF Jaro xG
Total xG
2.44
1.28
Mariehamn xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
9%
10.83
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FF Jaro vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FF Jaro and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for FF Jaro and 1.28 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for FF Jaro vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FF Jaro come into this having played 15 games, going 5W 2D 8L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for FF Jaro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mariehamn sit at 1.20 PPG from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for FF Jaro against 1.20 for Mariehamn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FF Jaro's home form reads 2W 1D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Mariehamn have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FF Jaro are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.07 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FF Jaro
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FF Jaro and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
FF Jaro have gone 5W 2D 8L in their last 15 games (1.13 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FF Jaro at home or Mariehamn away?
FF Jaro's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FF Jaro at home: 1.17 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FF Jaro won 3-0 on 23 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FF Jaro have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FF Jaro
1
Draws
2
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FF Jaro and Mariehamn?
From 5 meetings on record, FF Jaro have won 2, Mariehamn have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FF Jaro and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Mariehamn 2-0 FF Jaro.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FF Jaro see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FF Jaro 50%, Mariehamn 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FF Jaro) and 50% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: Mariehamn in 33%; FF Jaro have failed to score in 33% of games; Mariehamn in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FF Jaro home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FF Jaro play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FF Jaro's recent matches and 50% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FF Jaro vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FF Jaro's recent games and 50% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FF Jaro and Mariehamn tend to score early?
FF Jaro have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FF Jaro and Mariehamn share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FF Jaro and Mariehamn finished level at 1-1 at Jakobstads Centralplan, Regular Season - 14, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FF Jaro 1.16 xG and Mariehamn 1.28 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FF Jaro attack 0.73 / defence 1.13 against Mariehamn attack 0.73 / defence 1.05, drawn from 13/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FF Jaro 33% | Draw 28% | Mariehamn 39%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FF Jaro 47%, Mariehamn 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FF Jaro's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FF Jaro 1.13 PPG, Mariehamn 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mariehamn (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.