AC Oulu 1-0 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this AC Oulu vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and Mariehamn meet at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 August 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AC Oulu have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Raatin stadion, AC Oulu have gone 1W 1D 5L this season (7 games, 0.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game.
Mariehamn (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's away record: 2W 1D 3L from 6 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.17 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for AC Oulu, 0.50 for Mariehamn — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
AC Oulu — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 69% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 54% versus Mariehamn 23%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 46% | Mariehamn 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 0.99 xG and Mariehamn 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.827 / defence 1.381 | Mariehamn attack 0.843 / defence 1.434. League average goals — home 0.838 / away 1.118. Mariehamn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.434 — this is suppressing AC Oulu's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 AC Oulu games / 13 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 28% | Draw 28% | Mariehamn 44%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Mariehamn 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mariehamn if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: AC Oulu 43% | Mariehamn 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 28% | Draw 28% | Mariehamn 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG AC Oulu 0.99 / Mariehamn 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.827 / def 1.381 | Mariehamn attack 0.843 / def 1.434 | league avg home 0.838 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Mariehamn xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs Mariehamn kick off?
AC Oulu vs Mariehamn kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
AC Oulu 1 - 0 Mariehamn.
Where is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn part of?
AC Oulu vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 28% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both AC Oulu and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Mariehamn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AC Oulu and Mariehamn in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Mariehamn (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 0.83x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.84x) against AC Oulu's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 14/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
28%
3.51
28%
3.57
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.29
1.30
Mariehamn xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
8%
12.91
16%
6.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 13.1 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.30 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, AC Oulu have picked up 0.54 PPG on a 2W 1D 10L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn's form line: 3W 2D 8L from 13 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.54 PPG for AC Oulu against 0.85 for Mariehamn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AC Oulu have posted 0.67 PPG from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L).
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mariehamn come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AC Oulu are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 0.69 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn in 23%.
Last 13 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 2W 1D 10L in their last 13 games (0.54 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 3W 2D 8L in their last 13 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or Mariehamn away?
Mariehamn's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 0.67 PPG; Mariehamn away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AC Oulu
2
Draws
4
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 4, Mariehamn have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Mariehamn 1-1 AC Oulu.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 50%, Mariehamn 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (AC Oulu) and 50% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: AC Oulu have failed to score in 50% of games; Mariehamn in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 33% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of AC Oulu's recent games and 50% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and Mariehamn tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AC Oulu defy the odds to beat Mariehamn 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Oulu beat Mariehamn 1-0 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 0.99 xG and Mariehamn 1.30 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mariehamn landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.83 / defence 1.38 against Mariehamn attack 0.84 / defence 1.43, drawn from 14/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 28% | Draw 28% | Mariehamn 44%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual AC Oulu win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 46%, Mariehamn 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Mariehamn's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 69% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Oulu 0.54 PPG, Mariehamn 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Oulu win broke the near-deadlock. AC Oulu (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.