AC Oulu 0-2 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 40%, yet in-form AC Oulu provide a compelling counter-argument — this AC Oulu vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and Ilves meet at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AC Oulu have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu at Raatin stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Ilves (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ilves have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in AC Oulu's favour (1.80 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
AC Oulu half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Ilves half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 55% versus Ilves 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 55% | Ilves 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.21 xG and Ilves 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.874 / defence 0.921 | Ilves attack 1.032 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.450. Data: 44 AC Oulu games / 44 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 32% | Draw 28% | Ilves 40%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Ilves 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ilves at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AC Oulu (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ilves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AC Oulu 50% | Ilves 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 32% | Draw 28% | Ilves 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG AC Oulu 1.21 / Ilves 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.874 / def 0.921 | Ilves attack 1.032 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: Ilves (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Ilves xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs Ilves kick off?
AC Oulu vs Ilves kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Ilves?
AC Oulu 0 - 2 Ilves.
Where is AC Oulu vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Ilves part of?
AC Oulu vs Ilves is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 32% chance of winning, Ilves a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AC Oulu and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Ilves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AC Oulu and Ilves in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Ilves (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 0.87x the league average against Ilves's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (1.03x) against AC Oulu's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
32%
3.14
28%
3.54
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.58
1.38
Ilves xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
8%
12.47
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.38 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AC Oulu's recent record stands at 19W 11D 23L from 53 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ilves, meanwhile, have gone 19W 10D 24L across 53 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for AC Oulu against 1.26 for Ilves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AC Oulu have managed 12W 6D 8L from 26 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ilves's away record stands at 6W 8D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Oulu come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AC Oulu are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.32 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and Ilves in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 19W 11D 23L in their last 53 games (1.28 PPG), while Ilves have gone 19W 10D 24L in their last 53 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or Ilves away?
AC Oulu's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.62 PPG; Ilves away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 0-4 on 16 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AC Oulu
1
Draws
7
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 2, Ilves have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when AC Oulu 1-0 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 50%, Ilves 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (AC Oulu) and 54% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: AC Oulu have failed to score in 27% of games; Ilves in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 58% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Oulu vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of AC Oulu's recent games and 54% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and Ilves tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Ilves in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ilves cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over AC Oulu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat AC Oulu 0-2 at Raatin stadion, Relegation Round - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.21 xG and Ilves 1.38 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. AC Oulu fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.87 / defence 0.92 against Ilves attack 1.03 / defence 0.98, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 32% | Draw 28% | Ilves 40%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 55%, Ilves 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ilves's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Oulu 1.28 PPG, Ilves 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ilves win broke the near-deadlock. AC Oulu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Ilves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.