AC Oulu 3-0 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haka at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AC Oulu vs Haka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AC Oulu host Haka at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, AC Oulu have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
AC Oulu's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Raatin stadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — AC Oulu are significantly better at Raatin stadion than their overall form suggests.
Haka — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Haka — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
AC Oulu trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Haka trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 44% versus Haka 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AC Oulu 41% | Haka 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.33 xG and Haka 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 1.050 / defence 1.052 | Haka attack 1.085 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.458. Data: 26 AC Oulu games / 26 Haka games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 31% | Draw 24% | Haka 45%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Haka 2.22. Haka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Haka as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: AC Oulu 50% | Haka 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 31% | Draw 24% | Haka 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG AC Oulu 1.33 / Haka 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 1.050 / def 1.052 | Haka attack 1.085 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Haka (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Haka xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs Haka kick off?
AC Oulu vs Haka kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 29 April 2022 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Haka?
AC Oulu 3 - 0 Haka.
Where is AC Oulu vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Haka part of?
AC Oulu vs Haka is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 31% chance of winning, Haka a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both AC Oulu and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Haka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AC Oulu and Haka in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Haka (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 1.05x the league average against Haka's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus AC Oulu's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (26/26 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
31%
3.26
24%
4.17
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.99
1.66
Haka xG
3.26
31%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
19%
5.28
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
6%
17.21
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.66 for Haka, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AC Oulu come into this having played 27 games, going 7W 5D 15L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haka sit at 1.30 PPG from 27 outings (10W 5D 12L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AC Oulu on 0.96 PPG, Haka on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AC Oulu's home form reads 5W 2D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Haka have taken 1.46 points per game from 13 outings (6W 1D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
AC Oulu are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.11 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Haka in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and Haka in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 7W 5D 15L in their last 27 games (0.96 PPG), while Haka have gone 10W 5D 12L in their last 27 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or Haka away?
Haka's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.31 PPG; Haka away: 1.46 PPG.
Have AC Oulu or Haka been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Oulu have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Haka in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 19 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AC Oulu go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2022, when AC Oulu won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AC Oulu's record when hosting Haka specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AC Oulu
2
Draws
4
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 4, Haka have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2025, when Haka 0-1 AC Oulu.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 46%, Haka 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (AC Oulu) and 46% (Haka).
On the defensive side: Haka in 38%; AC Oulu have failed to score in 31% of games; Haka in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 31% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Oulu vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of AC Oulu's recent games and 46% of Haka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and Haka tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Haka in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AC Oulu run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Haka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Oulu beat Haka 3-0 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.33 xG and Haka 1.66 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AC Oulu beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haka landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 1.05 / defence 1.05 against Haka attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 26/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 31% | Draw 24% | Haka 45%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual AC Oulu win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 41%, Haka 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Haka's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Oulu 0.96 PPG, Haka 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Oulu win broke the near-deadlock. AC Oulu (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Haka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.