West Ham 0-5 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Liverpool (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as West Ham face Liverpool.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
London Stadium plays host to West Ham versus Liverpool in Premier League (matchday 19). Kick-off: Sunday 29 December 2024 at 17:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
West Ham have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, West Ham have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Liverpool (all games): 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Liverpool's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Liverpool are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from West Ham's last 10 home games and Liverpool's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of West Ham's games and 70% of Liverpool's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Liverpool, who have 4 wins from 6 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Apr 2024, ended West Ham 2–2 Liverpool — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Liverpool have won 4 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
West Ham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Liverpool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 83%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — West Ham 67% and Liverpool 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (West Ham 66% | Liverpool 66%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: West Ham surrender their half-time lead 47% of the time, while Liverpool have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 83% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.64 xG and Liverpool 2.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 0.986 / defence 1.136 | Liverpool attack 1.538 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.467. Liverpool have an above-average attack rating of 1.538, which lifts their away xG to 2.56. Data: built from West Ham's last 56 games and Liverpool's last 55.
Result probabilities: West Ham 23% | Draw 21% | Liverpool 57%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 4.42 | Draw 4.82 | Liverpool 1.77. The model has a clear lean to Liverpool (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS Yes probability 76% | Total xG 4.20. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.20 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% — both xG figures (1.64 / 2.56) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Liverpool at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (West Ham's last 10 home games and Liverpool's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 76% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: West Ham 80% (last 10 home games) | Liverpool 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, matchday 19 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 December 2024 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 23% | Draw 21% | Liverpool 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% (Under 21%) | BTTS Yes 76% (No 24%) | xG West Ham 1.64 / Liverpool 2.56 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 0.986 / def 1.136 | Liverpool attack 1.538 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.467 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
2.56
Liverpool xG
76%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ West Ham vs Liverpool FAQs
What time does West Ham vs Liverpool kick off?
West Ham vs Liverpool kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Sunday 29 December 2024 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Liverpool?
West Ham 0 - 5 Liverpool.
Where is West Ham vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Liverpool part of?
West Ham vs Liverpool is a Premier League fixture (matchday 19) (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 23% chance of winning, Liverpool a 57% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both West Ham and Liverpool will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will West Ham vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates West Ham's attack at 0.99x the league average against Liverpool's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Liverpool's attack (1.54x) against West Ham's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 2.56.
These ratings are built from West Ham's last 56 games and Liverpool's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.1%), 1-3 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
23%
4.42
21%
4.82
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
6.9%
Away win
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
West Ham xG
Total xG
4.20
2.56
Liverpool xG
4.42
23%
Home win
4.82
21%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.08
Clean Sheet
8%
12.99
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
2%
57.42
11%
9.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ West Ham vs Liverpool Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are West Ham and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for West Ham and 2.56 for Liverpool, a combined total of 4.20.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Liverpool?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, West Ham have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 20W 14D 21L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Liverpool's form line: 37W 13D 5L from 55 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Liverpool are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against West Ham.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, West Ham have posted 1.37 PPG from their last 27 home games (9W 10D 8L).
On the road, Liverpool have gone 15W 9D 3L from their last 27 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
West Ham are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 2.29 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Liverpool in 64%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
Liverpool
Blended
West Ham (Home) vs Liverpool (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
West Ham
Blended
Liverpool
Blended
❓ West Ham vs Liverpool Form FAQs
What form are West Ham and Liverpool in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 20W 14D 21L in their last 55 games (1.35 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 37W 13D 5L in their last 55 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Liverpool away?
Liverpool's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.37 PPG; Liverpool away: 2.00 PPG.
Have West Ham or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Ham have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Liverpool in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between West Ham and Liverpool, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Liverpool have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Liverpool won West Ham 0-5 Liverpool on 29 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Ham have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Liverpool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
West Ham
1
Draws
8
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ West Ham vs Liverpool H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Liverpool?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, West Ham have won 1, Liverpool have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did West Ham and Liverpool last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Liverpool 5-2 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Liverpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 86% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for West Ham, 70% for Liverpool — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for West Ham and 67% for Liverpool. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ West Ham vs Liverpool Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in West Ham and Liverpool matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of West Ham's games and 70% of Liverpool's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are West Ham and Liverpool matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of West Ham's matches and 67% of Liverpool's.
Do West Ham and Liverpool matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of West Ham's recent matches and 82% of Liverpool's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Liverpool run riot with a 0-5 hammering of West Ham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat West Ham 0-5 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.64 xG and Liverpool 2.56 xG, a combined 4.20. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. West Ham fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Liverpool outscored their 2.56 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.99 / defence 1.14 against Liverpool attack 1.54 / defence 1.11, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 23% | Draw 21% | Liverpool 57%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 66%, Liverpool 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Liverpool's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was vindicated by the result. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Liverpool (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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