West Ham 0-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Ham vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fulham make the trip to London Stadium to face West Ham in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 December 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
West Ham have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at London Stadium, West Ham have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fulham (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fulham have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Fulham are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — West Ham register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Fulham in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: West Ham 3W, Fulham 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2025, ended 3–2 with West Ham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
West Ham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — West Ham 62% and Fulham 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 54% | Fulham 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.67 xG and Fulham 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 0.902 / defence 1.411 | Fulham attack 1.057 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.270. Data: 55 West Ham games / 55 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 35% | Draw 22% | Fulham 44%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 2.86 | Draw 4.55 | Fulham 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.56 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: West Ham 70% | Fulham 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 35% | Draw 22% | Fulham 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG West Ham 1.67 / Fulham 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 0.902 / def 1.411 | Fulham attack 1.057 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Fulham (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Fulham xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Fulham kick off?
West Ham vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 December 2025 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Fulham?
West Ham 0 - 1 Fulham.
Where is West Ham vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Fulham part of?
West Ham vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 35% chance of winning, Fulham a 44% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both West Ham and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Fulham?
Record (6 meetings): West Ham 3W | Draws 1 | Fulham 2W.
What form are West Ham and Fulham in?
West Ham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Fulham (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from West Ham's attack rating (0.90) and Fulham's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (1.06x) against West Ham's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.89.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
35%
2.90
22%
4.56
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
West Ham xG
Total xG
3.56
1.89
Fulham xG
2.90
35%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
15%
6.64
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
5%
19.22
8%
12.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are West Ham and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for West Ham and 1.89 for Fulham, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, West Ham have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 14W 14D 27L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fulham's form line: 22W 11D 22L from 55 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for West Ham against 1.40 for Fulham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, West Ham have posted 0.96 PPG from 27 outings (7W 5D 15L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 10W 5D 12L from 27 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
West Ham are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.42 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Fulham in 67%.
Last 55 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Fulham in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 14W 14D 27L in their last 55 games (1.02 PPG), while Fulham have gone 22W 11D 22L in their last 55 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Fulham away?
Fulham's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 0.96 PPG; Fulham away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fulham won 5-0 on 10 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Ham have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
West Ham
1
Draws
3
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, West Ham have won 4, Fulham have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Fulham 0-1 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Fulham?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 63% for West Ham, 70% for Fulham — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (West Ham) and 56% (Fulham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: West Ham have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of West Ham's games and 70% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Ham vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of West Ham's matches and 56% of Fulham's.
Do West Ham and Fulham tend to score early?
West Ham have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Fulham in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out West Ham 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat West Ham 0-1 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.67 xG and Fulham 1.89 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. West Ham fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Fulham landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.90 / defence 1.41 against Fulham attack 1.06 / defence 1.20, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 35% | Draw 22% | Fulham 44%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 54%, Fulham 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fulham's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.02 PPG, Fulham 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.