West Ham 1-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Ham at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Ham vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
West Ham and Burnley meet at London Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 April 2022 at 14:15 UTC.
Form
West Ham (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
West Ham's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at London Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — West Ham are significantly better at London Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Burnley's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Burnley have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for West Ham, 0 for Burnley and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
West Ham — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Burnley — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 60% versus Burnley 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 53% | Burnley 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.55 xG and Burnley 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 1.076 / defence 1.085 | Burnley attack 0.616 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.354. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.312 — this is suppressing West Ham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 West Ham games / 30 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 52% | Draw 26% | Burnley 22%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Burnley 4.55. West Ham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates West Ham as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Ham if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: West Ham 70% | Burnley 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 14:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 52% | Draw 26% | Burnley 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG West Ham 1.55 / Burnley 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 1.076 / def 1.085 | Burnley attack 0.616 / def 1.312 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: West Ham (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Burnley xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Burnley kick off?
West Ham vs Burnley kicked off at 14:15 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Burnley?
West Ham 1 - 1 Burnley.
Where is West Ham vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Burnley part of?
West Ham vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 52% chance of winning, Burnley a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making West Ham the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both West Ham and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Burnley?
Record (1 meetings): West Ham 0W | Draws 1 | Burnley 0W.
What form are West Ham and Burnley in?
West Ham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Burnley (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
West Ham's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.62x) against West Ham's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 32/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
52%
1.91
26%
3.91
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
West Ham xG
Total xG
2.46
0.91
Burnley xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
5%
21.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are West Ham and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for West Ham and 0.91 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
West Ham's recent record stands at 13W 6D 11L from 30 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 4W 12D 14L across 30 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours West Ham by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, West Ham have managed 8W 3D 4L from 15 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 1W 6D 8L across 15 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Ham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
West Ham are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 0.83 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Burnley in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 13W 6D 11L in their last 30 games (1.50 PPG), while Burnley have gone 4W 12D 14L in their last 30 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Burnley away?
West Ham's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.80 PPG; Burnley away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
West Ham have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Ham have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
West Ham
3
Draws
0
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, West Ham have won 3, Burnley have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Burnley 0-2 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Burnley?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 73%, Burnley 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (West Ham) and 40% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Burnley in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of West Ham's games and 47% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Ham vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of West Ham's recent games and 40% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
West Ham and Burnley share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at London Stadium, Regular Season - 33, as West Ham and Burnley drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.55 xG and Burnley 0.91 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 1.08 / defence 1.08 against Burnley attack 0.62 / defence 1.31, drawn from 32/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 52% | Draw 26% | Burnley 22%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 53%, Burnley 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, West Ham arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.