West Ham 0-1 Brentford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brentford at 48% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Ham vs Brentford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Brentford travel to London Stadium to take on West Ham in Premier League (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, West Ham stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, West Ham have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Brentford have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Brentford away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: West Ham 1.20 PPG, Brentford 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of West Ham's games and 70% of Brentford's (from West Ham's last 10 home games and Brentford's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Brentford have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 1 for West Ham.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended West Ham 1–1 Brentford — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Brentford have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.1 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
West Ham trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Brentford trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — West Ham 68% and Brentford 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (West Ham 64% | Brentford 68%). Note also that Brentford surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while West Ham recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.34 xG and Brentford 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 0.948 / defence 1.251 | Brentford attack 0.950 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.537. West Ham's defence rating of 1.251 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Brentford's projected output up. Data: built from West Ham's last 62 games and Brentford's last 62.
Result probabilities: West Ham 27% | Draw 25% | Brentford 48%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 3.68 | Draw 4.01 | Brentford 2.09. Brentford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.34 / 1.83) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brentford as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Brentford 5 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brentford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (West Ham's last 10 home games and Brentford's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: West Ham 60% (last 10 home games) | Brentford 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, matchday 25 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 27% | Draw 25% | Brentford 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG West Ham 1.34 / Brentford 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 0.948 / def 1.251 | Brentford attack 0.950 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.537 • Poisson stance: Brentford (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Brentford xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ West Ham vs Brentford FAQs
What time does West Ham vs Brentford kick off?
West Ham vs Brentford kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 15 February 2025 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Brentford?
West Ham 0 - 1 Brentford.
Where is West Ham vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Brentford part of?
West Ham vs Brentford is a Premier League fixture (matchday 25) (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 27% chance of winning, Brentford a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Brentford the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both West Ham and Brentford will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will West Ham vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
West Ham's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Brentford's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Brentford's attack versus West Ham's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from West Ham's last 62 games and Brentford's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brentford Win
27%
3.68
25%
4.01
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
West Ham xG
Total xG
3.16
1.83
Brentford xG
3.68
27%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
16%
6.21
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
4%
22.86
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ West Ham vs Brentford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are West Ham and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for West Ham and 1.83 for Brentford, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, West Ham have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 21W 16D 25L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Brentford's form line: 19W 13D 30L from 62 games, 1.13 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Ham on 1.27 PPG, Brentford on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, West Ham have posted 1.33 PPG from their last 30 home games (10W 10D 10L).
On the road, Brentford have gone 7W 4D 19L from their last 30 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Ham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
West Ham are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.58 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Brentford in 68%.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
Brentford
Blended
West Ham (Home) vs Brentford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
West Ham
Blended
Brentford
Blended
❓ West Ham vs Brentford Form FAQs
What form are West Ham and Brentford in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 21W 16D 25L in their last 62 games (1.27 PPG), while Brentford have gone 19W 13D 30L in their last 62 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Brentford away?
West Ham's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.33 PPG; Brentford away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Brentford have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 May 2026, when Brentford won Brentford 3-0 West Ham.
West Ham's record when hosting Brentford specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
West Ham
1
Draws
8
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ West Ham vs Brentford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Brentford?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, West Ham have won 1, Brentford have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did West Ham and Brentford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Brentford 3-0 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Brentford?
Brentford have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Brentford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 63%, Brentford 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for West Ham and 67% for Brentford. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: West Ham have failed to score in 27% of games; Brentford in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ West Ham vs Brentford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in West Ham and Brentford matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of West Ham's games and 60% of Brentford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are West Ham and Brentford matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of West Ham's matches and 67% of Brentford's.
Do West Ham and Brentford matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of West Ham's recent matches and 70% of Brentford's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brentford edge out West Ham 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brentford beat West Ham 0-1 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.34 xG and Brentford 1.83 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. West Ham fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Brentford landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.95 / defence 1.25 against Brentford attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 27% | Draw 25% | Brentford 48%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 64%, Brentford 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Brentford's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.27 PPG, Brentford 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brentford win broke the near-deadlock. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Brentford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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