Tottenham 0-3 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nottingham Forest at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tottenham and Nottingham Forest meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:15 UTC.
Current Form
Tottenham's overall Premier League record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Tottenham at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nottingham Forest have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Nottingham Forest's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Nottingham Forest are 0.80 PPG clear of Tottenham in recent Premier League fixtures (1.10 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Tottenham lead 4W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 0–3 with Nottingham Forest winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Tottenham half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Nottingham Forest half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tottenham 62% versus Nottingham Forest 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tottenham 65% | Nottingham Forest 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 1.40 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 0.913 / defence 1.387 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.988 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.252. Data: 68 Tottenham games / 68 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tottenham 30% | Draw 27% | Nottingham Forest 43%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Nottingham Forest 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nottingham Forest are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tottenham 90% | Nottingham Forest 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 14:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 30% | Draw 27% | Nottingham Forest 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Tottenham 1.40 / Nottingham Forest 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 0.913 / def 1.387 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.988 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Nottingham Forest xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 14:15 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest?
Tottenham 0 - 3 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 30% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Tottenham and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Nottingham Forest?
Record (7 meetings): Tottenham 4W | Draws 0 | Nottingham Forest 3W.
What form are Tottenham and Nottingham Forest in?
Tottenham (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Tottenham's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Nottingham Forest's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Nottingham Forest's attack (0.99x) against Tottenham's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
30%
3.37
27%
3.69
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Tottenham xG
Total xG
3.11
1.72
Nottingham Forest xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
18%
5.56
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
5%
18.75
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Tottenham and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Tottenham and 1.72 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tottenham come into this having played 68 games, going 18W 14D 36L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Nottingham Forest sit at 1.38 PPG from 68 outings (26W 16D 26L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Tottenham against 1.38 for Nottingham Forest. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Tottenham's home form reads 8W 7D 19L across 34 games on their own ground, a 0.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Nottingham Forest have taken 1.41 points per game from 34 outings (14W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nottingham Forest come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tottenham are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.26 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Current Season
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tottenham and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 18W 14D 36L in their last 68 games (1.00 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 26W 16D 26L in their last 68 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Nottingham Forest's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 0.91 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Nottingham Forest have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nottingham Forest won 3-0 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tottenham have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Nottingham Forest — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Tottenham
0
Draws
4
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Nottingham Forest?
From 8 meetings on record, Tottenham have won 4, Nottingham Forest have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tottenham and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Tottenham 0-3 Nottingham Forest.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tottenham 74%, Nottingham Forest 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Tottenham and 62% for Nottingham Forest. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tottenham play Nottingham Forest?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Tottenham's games and 53% of Nottingham Forest's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Tottenham's matches and 62% of Nottingham Forest's.
Do Tottenham and Nottingham Forest tend to score early?
Tottenham have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Nottingham Forest in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nottingham Forest run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Tottenham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Tottenham 0-3 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.40 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.72 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Tottenham fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Nottingham Forest outscored their 1.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 0.91 / defence 1.39 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.99 / defence 1.11, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 30% | Draw 27% | Nottingham Forest 43%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 65%, Nottingham Forest 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.00 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.