Newcastle 2-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Newcastle (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Newcastle face Burnley.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burnley make the trip to St. James' Park to face Newcastle in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 December 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Newcastle (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Newcastle at St. James' Park this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Newcastle are significantly better at St. James' Park than their overall form suggests.
Burnley have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Burnley have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Newcastle's favour (1.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Newcastle, who have won 4 of the last 4 meetings against Burnley — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 4–1 with Newcastle winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Newcastle and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Newcastle half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 54% versus Burnley 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 62% | Burnley 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 2.75 xG and Burnley 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.143 / defence 0.947 | Burnley attack 0.993 / defence 1.570. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.290. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.570 — this is suppressing Newcastle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Newcastle games / 14 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newcastle 70% | Draw 16% | Burnley 14%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 1.43 | Draw 6.25 | Burnley 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Newcastle (70%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.75 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Newcastle at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.96 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Newcastle 50% | Burnley 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 70% | Draw 16% | Burnley 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 66% | xG Newcastle 2.75 / Burnley 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 1.143 / def 0.947 | Burnley attack 0.993 / def 1.570 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.75
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Burnley xG
66%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newcastle vs Burnley kick off?
Newcastle vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Burnley?
Newcastle 2 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Newcastle vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Burnley part of?
Newcastle vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 70% chance of winning, Burnley a 14% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Newcastle and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Newcastle vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Burnley?
Record (4 meetings): Newcastle 4W | Draws 0 | Burnley 0W.
What form are Newcastle and Burnley in?
Newcastle (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Burnley (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Newcastle's attack rating (1.14) and Burnley's defence rating (1.57), the model arrives at 2.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.99x) against Newcastle's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.7%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.0%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
70%
1.44
16%
6.27
14%
6.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.75
Newcastle xG
Total xG
3.96
1.21
Burnley xG
1.44
70%
Home win
6.27
16%
Draw
6.95
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
6%
15.64
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
1%
108.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 2.75 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.21 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Burnley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Newcastle come into this having played 52 games, going 25W 10D 17L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Burnley sit at 1.79 PPG from 52 outings (26W 15D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Newcastle against 1.79 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Newcastle's home form reads 16W 3D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Burnley have taken 1.73 points per game from 26 outings (13W 6D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Newcastle are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.35 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newcastle and Burnley in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 25W 10D 17L in their last 52 games (1.63 PPG), while Burnley have gone 26W 15D 11L in their last 52 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Burnley away?
Newcastle's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 1.96 PPG; Burnley away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Newcastle or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Burnley in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 30 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Newcastle have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Newcastle won 1-4 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Newcastle have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Newcastle
0
Draws
0
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Newcastle have won 6, Burnley have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 30 December 2025, when Burnley 1-3 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Burnley?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Newcastle see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 50%, Burnley 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Newcastle) and 50% (Burnley). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Burnley in 50%; Burnley in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newcastle play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Newcastle's recent matches and 42% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Newcastle vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Newcastle's matches and 50% of Burnley's.
Do Newcastle and Burnley tend to score early?
Newcastle have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Burnley in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Newcastle edge out Burnley 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newcastle beat Burnley 2-1 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 2.75 xG and Burnley 1.21 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.14 / defence 0.95 against Burnley attack 0.99 / defence 1.57, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 70% | Draw 16% | Burnley 14%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 62%, Burnley 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Burnley's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.63 PPG, Burnley 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.