Manchester United 1-1 Everton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Manchester United at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Manchester United vs Everton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Everton make the trip to Old Trafford to face Manchester United in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Manchester United (all games): 4W 1D 1L across 6 Premier League fixtures this term — 2.17 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.17 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Manchester United have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Manchester United's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 1L across 3 games at Old Trafford this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Everton have collected 2.17 PPG across 6 Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 1L. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton away from home this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 2.17 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.17 for Manchester United, 2.17 for Everton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Manchester United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Everton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Manchester United 67% versus Everton 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Manchester United 50% | Everton 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Manchester United 1.87 xG and Everton 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Manchester United attack 1.315 / defence 1.145 | Everton attack 0.885 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.096 / away 1.147. Manchester United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.315 — their λ of 1.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Everton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Manchester United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Manchester United games / 6 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Manchester United 54% | Draw 23% | Everton 24%. Fair-value odds: Manchester United 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Everton 4.17. Manchester United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Manchester United are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Manchester United if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Manchester United 67% | Everton 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Manchester United vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Old Trafford • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Manchester United 54% | Draw 23% | Everton 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Manchester United 1.87 / Everton 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Manchester United attack 1.315 / def 1.145 | Everton attack 0.885 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.096 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Manchester United (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Manchester United xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Everton xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Manchester United vs Everton kick off?
Manchester United vs Everton kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Old Trafford.
What was the final score in Manchester United vs Everton?
Manchester United 1 - 1 Everton.
Where is Manchester United vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Old Trafford.
What competition is Manchester United vs Everton part of?
Manchester United vs Everton is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Manchester United vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Manchester United a 54% chance of winning, Everton a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Manchester United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Manchester United vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Manchester United and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Manchester United vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Manchester United and Everton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Manchester United and Everton in?
Manchester United (all comps): 4W-1D-1L in 6 | 2.17 PPG | GF 2.17 / GA 0.83 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Everton (all comps): 4W-1D-1L in 6 | 2.17 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.17 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Manchester United's attack at 1.31x the league average against Everton's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Everton's attack (0.89x) against Manchester United's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Manchester United Win
54%
1.85
23%
4.43
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Manchester United xG
Total xG
3.03
1.16
Everton xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
4%
27.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Manchester United vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Manchester United and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Manchester United and 1.16 for Everton, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Manchester United vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Manchester United come into this having played 6 games, going 4W 1D 1L for 2.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Manchester United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Everton sit at 2.17 PPG from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.17 PPG for Manchester United against 2.17 for Everton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Manchester United's home form reads 2W 0D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Everton's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Manchester United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Manchester United are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 2.00 scored and 1.17 conceded. Everton's attacking output running into Manchester United's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Manchester United have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Manchester United
Early Season
Everton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Manchester United and Everton in coming into this match?
Manchester United have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 games (2.17 PPG), while Everton have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Manchester United at home or Everton away?
Manchester United's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Manchester United at home: 2.00 PPG; Everton away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Manchester United or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Manchester United have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Everton in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Manchester United won 4-0 on 1 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Manchester United have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Manchester United
2
Draws
2
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Manchester United and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Manchester United have won 6, Everton have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Manchester United and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Everton 0-1 Manchester United.
Who has won more matches between Manchester United and Everton?
Manchester United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Manchester United 67%, Everton 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Manchester United and 67% for Everton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton in 33%; Manchester United have failed to score in 33% of games; Everton in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Manchester United home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Manchester United play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Manchester United's recent matches and 33% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Manchester United vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Manchester United's matches and 67% of Everton's.
Manchester United and Everton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Old Trafford, Regular Season - 7, as Manchester United and Everton drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Manchester United 1.87 xG and Everton 1.16 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Manchester United fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Manchester United attack 1.31 / defence 1.15 against Everton attack 0.89 / defence 1.30, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Manchester United 54% | Draw 23% | Everton 24%, with Manchester United to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Manchester United 50%, Everton 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Manchester United's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Everton's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Manchester United 2.17 PPG, Everton 2.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Manchester United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.