Liverpool 1-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Liverpool at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Liverpool vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Liverpool and Sunderland meet at Anfield in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 3 December 2025 at 20:15 UTC.
Current Form
Liverpool's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Liverpool's home record at Anfield: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Liverpool are significantly better at Anfield than their overall form suggests.
Sunderland (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Sunderland have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Liverpool against 1.60 for Sunderland. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Liverpool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liverpool 59% versus Sunderland 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 65% | Sunderland 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 1.40 xG and Sunderland 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 1.030 / defence 1.034 | Sunderland attack 0.634 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.298. Data: 51 Liverpool games / 13 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Liverpool 50% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 23%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Sunderland 4.35. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Liverpool if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Liverpool 70% | Sunderland 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liverpool vs Sunderland | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Anfield • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Dec 2025, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liverpool 50% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Liverpool 1.40 / Sunderland 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Liverpool attack 1.030 / def 1.034 | Sunderland attack 0.634 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Liverpool xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Sunderland xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Liverpool vs Sunderland kick off?
Liverpool vs Sunderland kicked off at 20:15 on Wednesday 3 December 2025 at Anfield.
What was the final score in Liverpool vs Sunderland?
Liverpool 1 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Liverpool vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Anfield.
What competition is Liverpool vs Sunderland part of?
Liverpool vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 50% chance of winning, Sunderland a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Liverpool and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Liverpool vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Sunderland?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Liverpool and Sunderland in?
Liverpool (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Sunderland (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Liverpool's attack at 1.03x the league average against Sunderland's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (0.63x) against Liverpool's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 51/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.66
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Liverpool xG
Total xG
2.25
0.85
Sunderland xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
6%
17.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Liverpool and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Liverpool and 0.85 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Liverpool vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Liverpool's recent record stands at 32W 9D 10L from 51 games, a 2.06 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Liverpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 13L across 51 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Liverpool by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sunderland heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Liverpool have managed 18W 4D 3L from 25 games — 2.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland's away record stands at 9W 7D 9L across 25 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Liverpool are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.16 scored and 1.00 conceded. Liverpool's scoring rate against Sunderland's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liverpool
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Liverpool and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Liverpool have gone 32W 9D 10L in their last 51 games (2.06 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 21W 17D 13L in their last 51 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liverpool at home or Sunderland away?
Liverpool's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liverpool at home: 2.32 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Liverpool or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sunderland in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Liverpool
1
Draws
0
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Sunderland?
From 2 meetings on record, Liverpool have won 1, Sunderland have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Liverpool and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when Sunderland 0-1 Liverpool.
Who has won more matches between Liverpool and Sunderland?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Liverpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liverpool 60%, Sunderland 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Liverpool) and 40% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sunderland in 32%; Sunderland in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liverpool home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Liverpool play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Liverpool's recent matches and 40% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Liverpool vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Liverpool's recent games and 40% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Liverpool and Sunderland tend to score early?
Liverpool have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Liverpool and Sunderland share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool and Sunderland finished level at 1-1 at Anfield, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.40 xG and Sunderland 0.85 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.03 / defence 1.03 against Sunderland attack 0.63 / defence 0.90, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liverpool 50% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 23%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 65%, Sunderland 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liverpool's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.