Leicester 0-2 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fulham (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Leicester face Fulham.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Power Stadium plays host to Leicester versus Fulham in Premier League (matchday 22). Kick-off: Saturday 18 January 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Leicester's record over their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Leicester at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fulham (all games): 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Fulham's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Fulham arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Leicester's last 10 home games and Fulham's last 10 away games) — Leicester have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Fulham in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Fulham have the stronger record — 3 wins to Leicester's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended Leicester 1–2 Fulham — a Fulham win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Fulham have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Leicester goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 59% versus Fulham 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 64% | Fulham 61%). Note also that Fulham surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Leicester recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 0.99 xG and Fulham 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 0.694 / defence 1.220 | Fulham attack 1.029 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.520. Leicester's attack rating of 0.694 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Leicester's defence rating of 1.220 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fulham's projected output up. Data: built from Leicester's last 21 games and Fulham's last 59.
Result probabilities: Leicester 17% | Draw 26% | Fulham 57%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 5.77 | Draw 3.86 | Fulham 1.76. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (57%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Leicester's last 10 home games and Fulham's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Leicester 60% (last 10 home games) | Fulham 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 22 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 January 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 17% | Draw 26% | Fulham 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Leicester 0.99 / Fulham 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 0.694 / def 1.220 | Fulham attack 1.029 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.520 • Poisson stance: Fulham (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Fulham xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Leicester vs Fulham FAQs
What time does Leicester vs Fulham kick off?
Leicester vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 18 January 2025 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Fulham?
Leicester 0 - 2 Fulham.
Where is Leicester vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Fulham part of?
Leicester vs Fulham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 22) (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 17% chance of winning, Fulham a 57% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Leicester and Fulham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Leicester vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Leicester's attack at 0.69x the league average against Fulham's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (1.03x) against Leicester's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.91.
These ratings are built from Leicester's last 21 games and Fulham's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
17%
5.77
26%
3.86
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.90
1.91
Fulham xG
5.77
17%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
15%
6.73
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
3%
38.85
21%
4.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Leicester vs Fulham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Leicester and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Leicester and 1.91 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Fulham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Leicester have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 27W 9D 23L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Fulham's form line: 20W 17D 22L from 59 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Leicester against 1.31 for Fulham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Leicester have posted 1.69 PPG from their last 29 home games (15W 4D 10L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 7W 10D 12L from their last 29 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leicester come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Leicester are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.47 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Blended
Fulham
Blended
Leicester (Home) vs Fulham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Leicester
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Leicester vs Fulham Form FAQs
What form are Leicester and Fulham in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 27W 9D 23L in their last 59 games (1.53 PPG), while Fulham have gone 20W 17D 22L in their last 59 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Fulham away?
Leicester's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.69 PPG; Fulham away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 18 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Fulham have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leicester have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Leicester
0
Draws
4
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Leicester vs Fulham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Fulham?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Leicester have won 0, Fulham have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Fulham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 January 2025: Leicester 0-2 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 55%, Fulham 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Leicester) and 55% (Fulham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Leicester vs Fulham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Leicester and Fulham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Leicester's games and 62% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Leicester and Fulham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Leicester's matches and 55% of Fulham's.
Do Leicester and Fulham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Leicester's recent matches and 62% of Fulham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fulham cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Leicester.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Leicester 0-2 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 0.99 xG and Fulham 1.91 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Leicester fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.69 / defence 1.22 against Fulham attack 1.03 / defence 0.98, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 17% | Draw 26% | Fulham 57%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 64%, Fulham 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Fulham's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leicester 1.53 PPG, Fulham 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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