Leicester 1-1 Everton – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Leicester at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Leicester face Everton.

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Match Analysis

Leicester host Everton at King Power Stadium in Premier League (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 21 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Leicester stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Leicester's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Leicester are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Everton have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Everton's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Leicester at 1.10 PPG versus Everton's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Leicester's games and 60% of Everton's (from Leicester's last 10 home games and Everton's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Leicester have won 1, Everton 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 May 2023, ended Leicester 2–2 Everton — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Leicester in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Everton in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 57% versus Everton 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 62% | Everton 48%). Note also that Everton surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Leicester recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.54 xG and Everton 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 0.803 / defence 1.116 | Everton attack 0.849 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.494. Everton's defence rating of 1.386 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Leicester's projected output up. Data: built from Leicester's last 4 games and Everton's last 42.

Result probabilities: Leicester 39% | Draw 28% | Everton 33%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 2.57 | Draw 3.62 | Everton 2.99. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.54 / 1.42) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Leicester at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leicester offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Leicester's last 10 home games and Everton's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Leicester 70% (last 10 home games) | Everton 60% (last 10 away games).

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