Leicester 2-1 Brentford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leicester at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leicester vs Brentford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Brentford travel to King Power Stadium to take on Leicester. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 March 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leicester stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Leicester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leicester's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at King Power Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Leicester are significantly better at King Power Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Brentford — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Brentford's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Leicester 1.10 PPG, Brentford 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Leicester, 0 for Brentford and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Leicester winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Leicester in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at home): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Brentford in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at away): BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 62% versus Brentford 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 62% | Brentford 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.86 xG and Brentford 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 1.114 / defence 1.115 | Brentford attack 0.793 / defence 1.525. League average goals — home 1.093 / away 1.335. Brentford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.525 — this is suppressing Leicester's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Leicester games / 29 Brentford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 53% | Draw 23% | Brentford 24%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Brentford 4.17. Leicester hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Leicester as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leicester offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Leicester 50% | Brentford 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 53% | Draw 23% | Brentford 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Leicester 1.86 / Brentford 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 1.114 / def 1.115 | Brentford attack 0.793 / def 1.525 | league avg home 1.093 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Leicester (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Brentford xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Brentford kick off?
Leicester vs Brentford kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Brentford?
Leicester 2 - 1 Brentford.
Where is Leicester vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Brentford part of?
Leicester vs Brentford is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 53% chance of winning, Brentford a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Leicester and Brentford will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Brentford?
Record (1 meetings): Leicester 1W | Draws 0 | Brentford 0W.
What form are Leicester and Brentford in?
Leicester (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Brentford (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Leicester's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Brentford's defensive record (1.52x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Brentford's attack versus Leicester's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
53%
1.88
23%
4.41
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Leicester xG
Total xG
3.04
1.18
Brentford xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
16%
6.41
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
4%
26.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Leicester and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Leicester and 1.18 for Brentford, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Leicester's recent record stands at 9W 6D 11L from 26 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Leicester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brentford, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 15L across 26 games — 0.96 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Brentford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leicester on 1.27 PPG, Brentford on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Leicester have managed 5W 3D 4L from 12 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brentford's away record stands at 3W 2D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leicester come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Leicester are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.12 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Blended
Brentford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Brentford in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 9W 6D 11L in their last 26 games (1.27 PPG), while Brentford have gone 7W 4D 15L in their last 26 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Brentford away?
Leicester's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.50 PPG; Brentford away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Leicester and Brentford runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brentford have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2025, when Brentford won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Leicester's record when hosting Brentford specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Leicester
2
Draws
2
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Brentford?
From 6 meetings on record, Leicester have won 2, Brentford have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Brentford last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2025, when Leicester 0-4 Brentford.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 50%, Brentford 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Leicester and 67% for Brentford. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brentford in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Brentford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Leicester's recent matches and 58% of Brentford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leicester vs Brentford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Leicester's matches and 67% of Brentford's.
Prediction vindicated as Leicester edge out Brentford 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leicester beat Brentford 2-1 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.86 xG and Brentford 1.18 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 1.11 / defence 1.11 against Brentford attack 0.79 / defence 1.52, drawn from 26/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 53% | Draw 23% | Brentford 24%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 62%, Brentford 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Brentford's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leicester 1.27 PPG, Brentford 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leicester win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.