Leicester 0-0 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leicester at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leicester vs Aston Villa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Aston Villa make the trip to King Power Stadium to face Leicester in Premier League, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Leicester (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Leicester have posted 6W 2D 2L at King Power Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Leicester are significantly better at King Power Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Aston Villa's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Aston Villa away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Leicester's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Leicester 0W, Aston Villa 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Aston Villa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Leicester goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Aston Villa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 68% versus Aston Villa 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 61% | Aston Villa 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.41 xG and Aston Villa 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 1.138 / defence 1.081 | Aston Villa attack 0.832 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.340. Data: 31 Leicester games / 31 Aston Villa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 42% | Draw 26% | Aston Villa 32%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Aston Villa 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Leicester as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leicester if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Leicester 60% | Aston Villa 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 42% | Draw 26% | Aston Villa 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Leicester 1.41 / Aston Villa 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 1.138 / def 1.081 | Aston Villa attack 0.832 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Leicester (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Aston Villa xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Aston Villa kick off?
Leicester vs Aston Villa kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Aston Villa?
Leicester 0 - 0 Aston Villa.
Where is Leicester vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Aston Villa part of?
Leicester vs Aston Villa is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 42% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Leicester and Aston Villa will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Aston Villa?
Record (1 meetings): Leicester 0W | Draws 0 | Aston Villa 1W.
What form are Leicester and Aston Villa in?
Leicester (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Aston Villa (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Leicester's attack rating (1.14) and Aston Villa's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aston Villa's attack (0.83x) against Leicester's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
42%
2.39
26%
3.83
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.62
1.21
Aston Villa xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Leicester and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Leicester and 1.21 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Aston Villa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Leicester's recent record stands at 11W 8D 12L from 31 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Aston Villa, meanwhile, have gone 11W 3D 17L across 31 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Leicester against 1.16 for Aston Villa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Leicester have managed 8W 3D 4L from 15 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Leicester are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Aston Villa's away record stands at 6W 0D 9L across 15 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leicester come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Leicester are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.35 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Current Season
Aston Villa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 11W 8D 12L in their last 31 games (1.32 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 11W 3D 17L in their last 31 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Aston Villa away?
Leicester's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.80 PPG; Aston Villa away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Aston Villa have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leicester have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Aston Villa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Leicester
1
Draws
4
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Aston Villa?
From 6 meetings on record, Leicester have won 1, Aston Villa have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Aston Villa last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2025, when Aston Villa 2-1 Leicester.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Aston Villa?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 53%, Aston Villa 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Leicester) and 53% (Aston Villa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 7% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aston Villa in 33%; Aston Villa in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Aston Villa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Leicester's recent matches and 40% of Aston Villa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leicester vs Aston Villa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Leicester's matches and 53% of Aston Villa's.
Stalemate at Leicester's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 34, as Leicester and Aston Villa drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.41 xG and Aston Villa 1.21 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Leicester fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Aston Villa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 1.14 / defence 1.08 against Aston Villa attack 0.83 / defence 1.11, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 42% | Draw 26% | Aston Villa 32%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 61%, Aston Villa 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Aston Villa's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leicester 1.32 PPG, Aston Villa 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Aston Villa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.