Leeds 0-1 Newcastle – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Leeds at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leeds vs Newcastle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Leeds welcome Newcastle to Elland Road. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leeds stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Leeds, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Elland Road, Leeds have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Newcastle have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Newcastle's away record: 0W 3D 6L from 9 road trips in Premier League this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Leeds) versus 0.80 (Newcastle). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Leeds register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Newcastle in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Leeds, 0 for Newcastle and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Leeds trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Newcastle trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Leeds 70% and Newcastle 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leeds 60% | Newcastle 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leeds 1.65 xG and Newcastle 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leeds attack 0.913 / defence 1.282 | Newcastle attack 0.629 / defence 1.487. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.350. Newcastle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.487 — this is suppressing Leeds's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Leeds games / 20 Newcastle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leeds 50% | Draw 25% | Newcastle 25%. Fair-value odds: Leeds 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Newcastle 4.00. Leeds hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leeds are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leeds offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Leeds 70% | Newcastle 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leeds vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Elland Road • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leeds 50% | Draw 25% | Newcastle 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Leeds 1.65 / Newcastle 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Leeds attack 0.913 / def 1.282 | Newcastle attack 0.629 / def 1.487 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Leeds (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Leeds xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Newcastle xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leeds vs Newcastle kick off?
Leeds vs Newcastle kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Elland Road.
What was the final score in Leeds vs Newcastle?
Leeds 0 - 1 Newcastle.
Where is Leeds vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Elland Road.
What competition is Leeds vs Newcastle part of?
Leeds vs Newcastle is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leeds vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Leeds a 50% chance of winning, Newcastle a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Leeds the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Leeds and Newcastle will score (BTTS).
Will Leeds vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Newcastle?
Record (1 meetings): Leeds 0W | Draws 1 | Newcastle 0W.
What form are Leeds and Newcastle in?
Leeds (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Newcastle (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Leeds's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Newcastle's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Newcastle's attack versus Leeds's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leeds Win
50%
1.99
25%
4.03
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Leeds xG
Total xG
2.74
1.09
Newcastle xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
5%
20.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leeds vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Leeds and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Leeds and 1.09 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Leeds vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Leeds come into this having played 20 games, going 5W 7D 8L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Leeds is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Newcastle sit at 0.60 PPG from 20 outings (1W 9D 10L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Leeds carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Newcastle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Leeds's home form reads 3W 3D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Newcastle have taken 0.33 points per game from 9 outings (0W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leeds come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Leeds are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.00 scored and 2.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leeds have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Newcastle in 70%.
Last 20 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leeds
Blended
Newcastle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leeds and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Leeds have gone 5W 7D 8L in their last 20 games (1.10 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 1W 9D 10L in their last 20 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leeds at home or Newcastle away?
Leeds's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leeds at home: 1.33 PPG; Newcastle away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Leeds's record when hosting Newcastle specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Leeds
4
Draws
2
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Newcastle?
From 6 meetings on record, Leeds have won 0, Newcastle have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Leeds and Newcastle last play each other?
They last met on 7 January 2026, when Newcastle 4-3 Leeds.
Who has won more matches between Leeds and Newcastle?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Leeds at 67%, Newcastle at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Leeds) and 44% (Newcastle).
On the defensive side: Newcastle in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leeds home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leeds play Newcastle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Leeds's games and 67% of Newcastle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Leeds vs Newcastle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Leeds's recent games and 44% of Newcastle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Newcastle defy the odds to beat Leeds 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newcastle beat Leeds 0-1 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 1.65 xG and Newcastle 1.09 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Leeds fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 0.91 / defence 1.28 against Newcastle attack 0.63 / defence 1.49, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leeds 50% | Draw 25% | Newcastle 25%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Newcastle win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 60%, Newcastle 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leeds's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Newcastle's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.60. Form was overturned, with Newcastle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Leeds (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Newcastle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.