Fulham 1-1 Wolves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Wolves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fulham host Wolves at Craven Cottage in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 February 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fulham — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fulham have posted 5W 2D 3L at Craven Cottage — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolves stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wolves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Wolves have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Fulham have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Fulham, 0 for Wolves and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Fulham in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Wolves in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 52% versus Wolves 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 59% | Wolves 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.38 xG and Wolves 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.949 / defence 1.072 | Wolves attack 0.876 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.141. Data: 24 Fulham games / 61 Wolves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 44% | Draw 27% | Wolves 29%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Wolves 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Fulham 60% | Wolves 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Wolves | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Friday 24 Feb 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 44% | Draw 27% | Wolves 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Fulham 1.38 / Wolves 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.949 / def 1.072 | Wolves attack 0.876 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Fulham (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Wolves xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Wolves kick off?
Fulham vs Wolves kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 24 February 2023 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Wolves?
Fulham 1 - 1 Wolves.
Where is Fulham vs Wolves being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Wolves part of?
Fulham vs Wolves is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Wolves?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 44% chance of winning, Wolves a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Wolves?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Fulham and Wolves will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Wolves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Wolves?
Record (1 meetings): Fulham 0W | Draws 1 | Wolves 0W.
What form are Fulham and Wolves in?
Fulham (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Wolves (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fulham's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Wolves's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Wolves's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.72
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.45
1.07
Wolves xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
7%
13.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Wolves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Fulham and Wolves expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Fulham and 1.07 for Wolves, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Wolves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fulham come into this having played 61 games, going 33W 12D 16L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wolves sit at 1.21 PPG from 61 outings (21W 11D 29L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Wolves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fulham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Wolves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Fulham's home form reads 17W 6D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolves have taken 1.20 points per game from 30 outings (10W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Wolves are on 0.90 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Wolves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Wolves in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 33W 12D 16L in their last 61 games (1.82 PPG), while Wolves have gone 21W 11D 29L in their last 61 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Wolves away?
Fulham's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.90 PPG; Wolves away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Fulham or Wolves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Wolves in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2024, when Wolves won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fulham's record when hosting Wolves specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fulham
3
Draws
2
Wolves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Wolves?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 3, Wolves have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Wolves last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Wolves 1-1 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Wolves?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 57%, Wolves 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Fulham) and 37% (Wolves).
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Wolves in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Wolves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Wolves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Fulham's recent matches and 40% of Wolves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Wolves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Fulham's recent games and 37% of Wolves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Fulham and Wolves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 25, as Fulham and Wolves drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.38 xG and Wolves 1.07 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.95 / defence 1.07 against Wolves attack 0.88 / defence 1.06, drawn from 24/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 44% | Draw 27% | Wolves 29%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 59%, Wolves 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Wolves's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.