Fulham 2-0 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fulham at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Nottingham Forest fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Fulham welcome Nottingham Forest to Craven Cottage. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fulham — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Nottingham Forest have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Fulham) versus 1.80 (Nottingham Forest). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Fulham, 1 for Nottingham Forest and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2022, ended 3–2 with Fulham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Fulham in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Nottingham Forest in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 56% versus Nottingham Forest 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 60% | Nottingham Forest 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.66 xG and Nottingham Forest 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.922 / defence 1.132 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.612 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.143. Nottingham Forest bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing Fulham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Fulham games / 21 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 58% | Draw 25% | Nottingham Forest 18%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Nottingham Forest 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 70% | Nottingham Forest 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 58% | Draw 25% | Nottingham Forest 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 44% | xG Fulham 1.66 / Nottingham Forest 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.922 / def 1.132 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.612 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Fulham (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Nottingham Forest xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Fulham vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Fulham 2 - 0 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Fulham vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Fulham vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 58% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Fulham and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Nottingham Forest?
Record (3 meetings): Fulham 2W | Draws 0 | Nottingham Forest 1W.
What form are Fulham and Nottingham Forest in?
Fulham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fulham's attack at 0.92x the league average against Nottingham Forest's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nottingham Forest's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
58%
1.73
25%
4.04
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.45
0.79
Nottingham Forest xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
3%
29.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.3 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Fulham and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Fulham and 0.79 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Nottingham Forest?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 68 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 36W 14D 18L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nottingham Forest's form line: 31W 17D 20L from 68 games, 1.62 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.79 PPG, Nottingham Forest on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.88 PPG from 34 outings (19W 7D 8L).
On the road, Nottingham Forest have gone 13W 10D 11L from 34 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fulham are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.35 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Nottingham Forest in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Nottingham Forest
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 36W 14D 18L in their last 68 games (1.79 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 31W 17D 20L in their last 68 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Fulham's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.88 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Fulham or Nottingham Forest been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Nottingham Forest in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fulham and Nottingham Forest runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Dec 2023, when Fulham won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fulham's record when hosting Nottingham Forest specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Fulham
1
Draws
2
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Nottingham Forest?
From 10 meetings on record, Fulham have won 7, Nottingham Forest have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Nottingham Forest 0-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Nottingham Forest?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 59%, Nottingham Forest 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Fulham) and 32% (Nottingham Forest).
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Nottingham Forest in 32%; Nottingham Forest in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Nottingham Forest?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Fulham's recent matches and 38% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Fulham's recent games and 32% of Nottingham Forest's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fulham and Nottingham Forest tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Nottingham Forest in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fulham cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nottingham Forest.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Nottingham Forest 2-0 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.66 xG and Nottingham Forest 0.79 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.92 / defence 1.13 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.61 / defence 1.27, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 58% | Draw 25% | Nottingham Forest 18%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 60%, Nottingham Forest 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.79 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.