Fulham 3-2 Liverpool – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Liverpool (56%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Fulham face Liverpool.

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Analysis

Liverpool make the trip to Craven Cottage to face Fulham in Premier League (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Sunday 6 April 2025 at 14:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Fulham have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Fulham's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Liverpool (all games): 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 — 2.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Liverpool's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On a straight form reading, Liverpool are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Fulham's last 10 home games and Liverpool's last 10 away games) — Fulham have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Liverpool in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head sample leans to Liverpool, who have 3 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2024, ended Fulham 2–2 Liverpool — a draw.

The H2H data backs the away side. Liverpool have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Liverpool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 87%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fulham 59% and Liverpool 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 60% | Liverpool 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fulham surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Liverpool have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 87% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.16 xG and Liverpool 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.960 / defence 0.938 | Liverpool attack 1.471 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.432. Liverpool have an above-average attack rating of 1.471, which lifts their away xG to 1.98. Data: built from Fulham's last 68 games and Liverpool's last 68.

Result probabilities: Fulham 22% | Draw 22% | Liverpool 56%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 4.55 | Draw 4.61 | Liverpool 1.77. The model has a clear lean to Liverpool (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Liverpool at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fulham's last 10 home games and Liverpool's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fulham 60% (last 10 home games) | Liverpool 60% (last 10 away games).

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