Fulham 3-2 Brentford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brentford at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Brentford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Fulham welcome Brentford to Craven Cottage. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fulham stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fulham's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Craven Cottage this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Brentford have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Brentford have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Brentford's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Brentford are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Fulham trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Brentford trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 50% versus Brentford 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 52% | Brentford 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.63 xG and Brentford 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.973 / defence 1.198 | Brentford attack 1.153 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.190. Data: 2 Fulham games / 40 Brentford games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fulham 38% | Draw 24% | Brentford 38%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Brentford 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 50% | Brentford 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 38% | Draw 24% | Brentford 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Fulham 1.63 / Brentford 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.973 / def 1.198 | Brentford attack 1.153 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Brentford xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Brentford kick off?
Fulham vs Brentford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Brentford?
Fulham 3 - 2 Brentford.
Where is Fulham vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Brentford part of?
Fulham vs Brentford is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 38% chance of winning, Brentford a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Fulham and Brentford will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Brentford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fulham and Brentford in?
Fulham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Brentford (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fulham's attack rating (0.97) and Brentford's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brentford's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brentford Win
38%
2.65
24%
4.18
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.27
1.64
Brentford xG
2.65
38%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
7%
13.73
8%
13.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Fulham and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Fulham and 1.64 for Brentford, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 22W 10D 8L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Brentford's form line: 14W 8D 18L from 40 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Brentford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Fulham are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Brentford.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fulham have posted 2.00 PPG from 20 outings (12W 4D 4L).
On the road, Brentford have gone 6W 5D 9L from 20 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.35 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Early Season
Brentford
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Brentford in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 22W 10D 8L in their last 40 games (1.90 PPG), while Brentford have gone 14W 8D 18L in their last 40 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Brentford away?
Fulham's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 2.00 PPG; Brentford away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Fulham or Brentford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Brentford in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Brentford won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fulham's record when hosting Brentford specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Fulham
2
Draws
2
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Brentford?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 4, Brentford have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Brentford last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Brentford 0-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Brentford?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 55%, Brentford 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Fulham and 70% for Brentford. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Brentford in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Brentford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Fulham's games and 65% of Brentford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Brentford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Fulham's matches and 70% of Brentford's.
Shock result as Fulham defy the odds to beat Brentford 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Brentford 3-2 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.63 xG and Brentford 1.64 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.97 / defence 1.20 against Brentford attack 1.15 / defence 1.10, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 38% | Draw 24% | Brentford 38%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 52%, Brentford 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Brentford's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Fulham (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brentford (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.