Fulham 1-0 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Aston Villa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Craven Cottage plays host to Fulham versus Aston Villa in Premier League, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fulham's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Fulham's home record at Craven Cottage: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Aston Villa (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Aston Villa away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Fulham, 1.20 for Aston Villa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fulham register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Aston Villa in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across the last 7 meetings, Aston Villa have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Fulham's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with Aston Villa winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Aston Villa have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Aston Villa half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fulham 65% and Aston Villa 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 56% | Aston Villa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.61 xG and Aston Villa 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.079 / defence 1.008 | Aston Villa attack 0.962 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.278. Data: 71 Fulham games / 71 Aston Villa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 44% | Draw 28% | Aston Villa 28%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Aston Villa 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 80% | Aston Villa 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 44% | Draw 28% | Aston Villa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Fulham 1.61 / Aston Villa 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.079 / def 1.008 | Aston Villa attack 0.962 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Fulham (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Aston Villa xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Aston Villa kick off?
Fulham vs Aston Villa kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Fulham 1 - 0 Aston Villa.
Where is Fulham vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Aston Villa part of?
Fulham vs Aston Villa is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 44% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fulham and Aston Villa will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Aston Villa?
Record (7 meetings): Fulham 1W | Draws 0 | Aston Villa 6W.
What form are Fulham and Aston Villa in?
Fulham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Aston Villa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fulham's attack at 1.08x the league average against Aston Villa's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aston Villa's attack (0.96x) against Fulham's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
44%
2.25
28%
3.59
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.85
1.24
Aston Villa xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
6%
18.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Fulham and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Fulham and 1.24 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 71 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 28W 15D 28L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Aston Villa's form line: 36W 16D 19L from 71 games, 1.75 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Fulham against 1.75 for Aston Villa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.57 PPG from 35 outings (16W 7D 12L).
On the road, Aston Villa have gone 14W 7D 14L from 35 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fulham are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.48 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Current Season
Aston Villa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 28W 15D 28L in their last 71 games (1.39 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 36W 16D 19L in their last 71 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Aston Villa away?
Fulham's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.57 PPG; Aston Villa away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fulham won 3-0 on 20 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Aston Villa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fulham
0
Draws
6
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Aston Villa?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 2, Aston Villa have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Aston Villa last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Fulham 1-0 Aston Villa.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Aston Villa?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fulham see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Aston Villa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 69%, Aston Villa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Fulham and 57% for Aston Villa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aston Villa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Aston Villa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Fulham's games and 54% of Aston Villa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Aston Villa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Fulham's matches and 57% of Aston Villa's.
Do Fulham and Aston Villa tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Aston Villa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Aston Villa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Aston Villa 1-0 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.61 xG and Aston Villa 1.24 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Aston Villa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against Aston Villa attack 0.96 / defence 1.07, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 44% | Draw 28% | Aston Villa 28%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 56%, Aston Villa 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Aston Villa's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.39 PPG, Aston Villa 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Aston Villa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.