Fulham 1-1 Arsenal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arsenal at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Arsenal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fulham and Arsenal meet at Craven Cottage in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Fulham (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Arsenal have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Fulham against 1.80 for Arsenal. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Fulham, 2 for Arsenal and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Fulham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fulham — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Arsenal — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 56% versus Arsenal 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 60% | Arsenal 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.33 xG and Arsenal 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.995 / defence 1.184 | Arsenal attack 1.176 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.396. Data: 52 Fulham games / 52 Arsenal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 25% | Draw 24% | Arsenal 51%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Arsenal 1.96. Arsenal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arsenal are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arsenal if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 90% | Arsenal 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Arsenal | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 25% | Draw 24% | Arsenal 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Fulham 1.33 / Arsenal 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.995 / def 1.184 | Arsenal attack 1.176 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Arsenal xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Arsenal kick off?
Fulham vs Arsenal kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Arsenal?
Fulham 1 - 1 Arsenal.
Where is Fulham vs Arsenal being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Arsenal part of?
Fulham vs Arsenal is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Arsenal?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 25% chance of winning, Arsenal a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Arsenal?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Fulham and Arsenal will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Arsenal?
Record (4 meetings): Fulham 1W | Draws 1 | Arsenal 2W.
What form are Fulham and Arsenal in?
Fulham (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Arsenal (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fulham's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Arsenal's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Arsenal's attack (1.18x) against Fulham's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.94.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
25%
3.96
24%
4.15
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.28
1.94
Arsenal xG
3.96
25%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
14%
6.99
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
4%
27.69
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Arsenal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Fulham and Arsenal expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Fulham and 1.94 for Arsenal, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Arsenal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fulham's recent record stands at 19W 12D 21L from 52 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have gone 36W 9D 7L across 52 games — 2.25 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Arsenal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arsenal by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fulham heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 13W 3D 10L from 26 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arsenal's away record stands at 16W 5D 5L across 26 trips, a 2.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fulham are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Arsenal are on 2.29 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Arsenal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Arsenal in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 19W 12D 21L in their last 52 games (1.33 PPG), while Arsenal have gone 36W 9D 7L in their last 52 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Arsenal away?
Arsenal's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.62 PPG; Arsenal away: 2.04 PPG.
Have Fulham or Arsenal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Arsenal in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Arsenal have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arsenal won 0-3 on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Arsenal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fulham
2
Draws
5
Arsenal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Arsenal?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 1, Arsenal have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Arsenal last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Arsenal 3-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Arsenal?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 54%, Arsenal 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Fulham) and 46% (Arsenal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arsenal in 50%; Fulham have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Arsenal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Arsenal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Fulham's recent matches and 35% of Arsenal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Arsenal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Fulham's matches and 46% of Arsenal's.
Fulham and Arsenal share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham and Arsenal finished level at 1-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.33 xG and Arsenal 1.94 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Arsenal landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.99 / defence 1.18 against Arsenal attack 1.18 / defence 0.82, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 25% | Draw 24% | Arsenal 51%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 60%, Arsenal 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Arsenal's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Arsenal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.