Everton 1-0 Sheffield Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Sheffield Utd encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton host Sheffield Utd at Goodison Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Goodison Park, Everton have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Goodison Park.
Across all Premier League games this season, Sheffield Utd have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 3.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Sheffield Utd away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Everton carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Everton have won 0, Sheffield Utd 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Everton trading profile (74 games, 37 at home): BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sheffield Utd trading profile (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 43% versus Sheffield Utd 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 42% | Sheffield Utd 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 2.02 xG and Sheffield Utd 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.811 / defence 0.670 | Sheffield Utd attack 0.766 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.790 / away 1.485. Sheffield Utd bring a strong defensive rating of 1.394 — this is suppressing Everton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Everton's defence rating of 0.670 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 74 Everton games / 36 Sheffield Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 66% | Draw 22% | Sheffield Utd 12%. Fair-value odds: Everton 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | Sheffield Utd 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Everton (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Everton 40% | Sheffield Utd 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Sheffield Utd | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 66% | Draw 22% | Sheffield Utd 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 47% | xG Everton 2.02 / Sheffield Utd 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.811 / def 0.670 | Sheffield Utd attack 0.766 / def 1.394 | league avg home 1.790 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: Everton (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Everton xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Sheffield Utd xG
47%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Sheffield Utd kick off?
Everton vs Sheffield Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Sheffield Utd?
Everton 1 - 0 Sheffield Utd.
Where is Everton vs Sheffield Utd being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Sheffield Utd part of?
Everton vs Sheffield Utd is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Sheffield Utd?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 66% chance of winning, Sheffield Utd a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Sheffield Utd?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Everton and Sheffield Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Sheffield Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Sheffield Utd?
Record (1 meetings): Everton 0W | Draws 1 | Sheffield Utd 0W.
What form are Everton and Sheffield Utd in?
Everton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Sheffield Utd (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 3.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.81x the league average against Sheffield Utd's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sheffield Utd's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
66%
1.51
22%
4.64
12%
8.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Everton xG
Total xG
2.79
0.76
Sheffield Utd xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
8.10
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
13%
7.57
Win to Nil
31%
3.24
2%
61.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Sheffield Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Everton and Sheffield Utd expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Everton and 0.76 for Sheffield Utd, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Sheffield Utd?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 74 outings, Everton have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 20W 21D 33L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Sheffield Utd's form line: 26W 12D 36L from 74 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.09 PPG, Sheffield Utd on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.24 PPG from 37 outings (13W 7D 17L).
On the road, Sheffield Utd have gone 12W 5D 20L from 37 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Everton are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Utd are on 1.24 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Current Season
Sheffield Utd
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Sheffield Utd in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 20W 21D 33L in their last 74 games (1.09 PPG), while Sheffield Utd have gone 26W 12D 36L in their last 74 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Sheffield Utd away?
Everton's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.24 PPG; Sheffield Utd away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton and Sheffield Utd runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Everton
1
Draws
0
Sheffield Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Sheffield Utd?
From 2 meetings on record, Everton have won 1, Sheffield Utd have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Sheffield Utd last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2024, when Everton 1-0 Sheffield Utd.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Sheffield Utd?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sheffield Utd see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 38%, Sheffield Utd 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Everton) and 46% (Sheffield Utd).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 27% of games; Sheffield Utd in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Sheffield Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Sheffield Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Everton's recent matches and 49% of Sheffield Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Sheffield Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Everton's recent games and 46% of Sheffield Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Everton edge out Sheffield Utd 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Sheffield Utd 1-0 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 37, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 2.02 xG and Sheffield Utd 0.76 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Everton fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.81 / defence 0.67 against Sheffield Utd attack 0.77 / defence 1.39, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 66% | Draw 22% | Sheffield Utd 12%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 42%, Sheffield Utd 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.09 PPG, Sheffield Utd 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.