Everton vs Liverpool – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Liverpool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Everton welcome Liverpool to Hill Dickinson Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton's home record at Hill Dickinson Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Liverpool — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Liverpool have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Liverpool's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Everton) versus 1.30 (Liverpool). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Everton register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Liverpool in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Liverpool, who boast 7 victories compared to 1 for Everton.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Liverpool winning.
It is worth noting that Liverpool have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Everton in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Liverpool in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Everton 50% and Liverpool 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 42% | Liverpool 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.76 xG and Liverpool 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 1.027 / defence 0.957 | Liverpool attack 1.134 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.210. Data: 40 Everton games / 40 Liverpool games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Everton 48% | Draw 23% | Liverpool 29%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Liverpool 3.45. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton 60% | Liverpool 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 48% | Draw 23% | Liverpool 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Everton 1.76 / Liverpool 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 1.027 / def 0.957 | Liverpool attack 1.134 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Everton (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Liverpool xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Liverpool kick off?
Everton vs Liverpool is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Where is Everton vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Liverpool part of?
Everton vs Liverpool is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 48% chance of winning, Liverpool a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Everton and Liverpool will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Liverpool?
Record (10 meetings): Everton 1W | Draws 2 | Liverpool 7W.
What form are Everton and Liverpool in?
Everton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Liverpool (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Everton's attack at 1.03x the league average against Liverpool's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Liverpool's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
48%
2.09
23%
4.28
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Everton xG
Total xG
3.07
1.31
Liverpool xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
5%
20.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.7 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Everton and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Everton and 1.31 for Liverpool, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Liverpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton come into this having played 40 games, going 14W 11D 15L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Liverpool sit at 1.55 PPG from 40 outings (17W 11D 12L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Liverpool, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.32 PPG, Liverpool on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Everton's home form reads 7W 5D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Liverpool have taken 1.25 points per game from 20 outings (7W 4D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 1.68 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Liverpool in 70%.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Early Season
Liverpool
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Liverpool in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 14W 11D 15L in their last 40 games (1.32 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 17W 11D 12L in their last 40 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Liverpool away?
Everton's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.30 PPG; Liverpool away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Everton or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Liverpool in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Liverpool have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2021, when Liverpool won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Liverpool specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Everton
2
Draws
7
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Liverpool?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 1, Liverpool have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Liverpool last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Everton 1-2 Liverpool.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Liverpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 50%, Liverpool 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Everton and 75% for Liverpool. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Liverpool?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Everton's games and 70% of Liverpool's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton vs Liverpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Everton's matches and 75% of Liverpool's.
Do Everton and Liverpool tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Liverpool in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.