Crystal Palace 1-0 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Tottenham (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Crystal Palace face Tottenham.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Crystal Palace welcome Tottenham to Selhurst Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crystal Palace stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crystal Palace have posted 4W 3D 3L at Selhurst Park — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Crystal Palace are significantly better at Selhurst Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Tottenham have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tottenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tottenham's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Tottenham's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Crystal Palace's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Tottenham have the better historical record — 5 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Crystal Palace.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 1–3 with Tottenham winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Tottenham have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Crystal Palace trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Tottenham trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Crystal Palace 59% and Tottenham 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Crystal Palace 52% | Tottenham 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.39 xG and Tottenham 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.845 / defence 0.902 | Tottenham attack 1.125 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.457. Data: 46 Crystal Palace games / 46 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 34% | Draw 28% | Tottenham 38%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Tottenham 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tottenham as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tottenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Crystal Palace 40% | Tottenham 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 34% | Draw 28% | Tottenham 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Crystal Palace 1.39 / Tottenham 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.845 / def 0.902 | Tottenham attack 1.125 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Tottenham xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs Tottenham kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Tottenham?
Crystal Palace 1 - 0 Tottenham.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Tottenham part of?
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 34% chance of winning, Tottenham a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Crystal Palace and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Tottenham?
Record (6 meetings): Crystal Palace 1W | Draws 0 | Tottenham 5W.
What form are Crystal Palace and Tottenham in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Tottenham (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Crystal Palace vs Tottenham?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Crystal Palace's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Tottenham's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus Crystal Palace's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
34%
2.96
28%
3.52
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.87
1.48
Tottenham xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
8%
12.98
9%
10.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.48 for Tottenham, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crystal Palace's recent record stands at 13W 13D 20L from 46 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 24W 7D 15L across 46 games — 1.72 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Tottenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tottenham by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crystal Palace heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Crystal Palace have managed 8W 6D 9L from 23 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tottenham's away record stands at 8W 7D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 2.00 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham in 70%.
Last 46 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Blended
Tottenham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 13W 13D 20L in their last 46 games (1.13 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 24W 7D 15L in their last 46 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Tottenham away?
Tottenham's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.30 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 5 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jan 2023, when Tottenham won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crystal Palace's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Crystal Palace
0
Draws
6
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Tottenham?
From 10 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 4, Tottenham have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2026, when Tottenham 1-3 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Tottenham?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 52%, Tottenham 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Crystal Palace and 74% for Tottenham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Crystal Palace have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play Tottenham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Crystal Palace's games and 61% of Tottenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crystal Palace vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Crystal Palace's matches and 74% of Tottenham's.
Shock result as Crystal Palace defy the odds to beat Tottenham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crystal Palace beat Tottenham 1-0 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.39 xG and Tottenham 1.48 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tottenham landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.84 / defence 0.90 against Tottenham attack 1.12 / defence 1.08, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 34% | Draw 28% | Tottenham 38%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Crystal Palace win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 52%, Tottenham 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Tottenham's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Tottenham arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Crystal Palace winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.