Chelsea 6-0 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chelsea at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chelsea vs Everton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stamford Bridge plays host to Chelsea versus Everton in Premier League, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Monday 15 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Chelsea (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Chelsea's home record at Stamford Bridge: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Everton have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Everton have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Chelsea's favour (1.60 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Chelsea 1W, Everton 2W, 2D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Everton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Chelsea half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at home): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Everton half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at away): BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chelsea 57% versus Everton 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chelsea 53% | Everton 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chelsea 1.76 xG and Everton 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chelsea attack 1.199 / defence 1.239 | Everton attack 0.717 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.510. Data: 68 Chelsea games / 69 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chelsea 47% | Draw 25% | Everton 28%. Fair-value odds: Chelsea 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Everton 3.57. Chelsea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chelsea as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chelsea if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chelsea 70% | Everton 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chelsea vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stamford Bridge • Kick-off: Monday 15 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chelsea 47% | Draw 25% | Everton 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Chelsea 1.76 / Everton 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Chelsea attack 1.199 / def 1.239 | Everton attack 0.717 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.510 • Poisson stance: Chelsea (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Chelsea xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Everton xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chelsea vs Everton kick off?
Chelsea vs Everton kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 15 April 2024 at Stamford Bridge.
What was the final score in Chelsea vs Everton?
Chelsea 6 - 0 Everton.
Where is Chelsea vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Stamford Bridge.
What competition is Chelsea vs Everton part of?
Chelsea vs Everton is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Chelsea vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Chelsea a 47% chance of winning, Everton a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chelsea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Chelsea and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Chelsea vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and Everton?
Record (5 meetings): Chelsea 1W | Draws 2 | Everton 2W.
What form are Chelsea and Everton in?
Chelsea (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Everton (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Chelsea's attack rating (1.20) and Everton's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Everton's attack (0.72x) against Chelsea's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 68/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chelsea Win
47%
2.15
25%
4.00
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Chelsea xG
Total xG
3.10
1.34
Everton xG
2.15
47%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
5%
20.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.6 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chelsea vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Chelsea and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Chelsea and 1.34 for Everton, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Chelsea vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 68 outings, Chelsea have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 23W 19D 26L record — D-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Everton's form line: 17W 20D 31L from 68 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Chelsea against 1.04 for Everton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chelsea have posted 1.47 PPG from 34 outings (13W 11D 10L).
On the road, Everton have gone 7W 13D 14L from 34 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chelsea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chelsea are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 0.97 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chelsea
Current Season
Everton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chelsea and Everton in coming into this match?
Chelsea have gone 23W 19D 26L in their last 68 games (1.29 PPG), while Everton have gone 17W 20D 31L in their last 68 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chelsea at home or Everton away?
Chelsea's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chelsea at home: 1.47 PPG; Everton away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chelsea won 6-0 on 15 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chelsea have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Chelsea
3
Draws
3
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Chelsea have won 4, Everton have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chelsea and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Everton 3-0 Chelsea.
Who has won more matches between Chelsea and Everton?
Chelsea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chelsea 50%, Everton 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Chelsea) and 41% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Chelsea have failed to score in 29% of games; Everton in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chelsea home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chelsea play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chelsea's recent matches and 47% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chelsea vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Chelsea's recent games and 41% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Chelsea run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Everton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chelsea beat Everton 6-0 at Stamford Bridge, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chelsea 1.76 xG and Everton 1.34 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Chelsea beat their projection by 4.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Everton landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chelsea attack 1.20 / defence 1.24 against Everton attack 0.72 / defence 0.86, drawn from 68/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chelsea 47% | Draw 25% | Everton 28%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chelsea 53%, Everton 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chelsea's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Everton's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chelsea 1.29 PPG, Everton 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chelsea win broke the near-deadlock. Chelsea (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.