Chelsea 1-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chelsea at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chelsea vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Burnley travel to Stamford Bridge to take on Chelsea. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chelsea — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Chelsea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chelsea have posted 4W 0D 1L at Stamford Bridge — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stamford Bridge. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Chelsea are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.80 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Chelsea trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 70% of the time.
Burnley trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chelsea 20% versus Burnley 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chelsea 60% | Burnley 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chelsea 2.68 xG and Burnley 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chelsea attack 1.699 / defence 0.855 | Burnley attack 0.779 / defence 1.495. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.463. Chelsea carry an above-average attack strength of 1.699 — their λ of 2.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.495 — this is suppressing Chelsea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Chelsea games / 10 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chelsea 74% | Draw 15% | Burnley 11%. Fair-value odds: Chelsea 1.35 | Draw 6.67 | Burnley 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Chelsea (74%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chelsea are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.66 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Chelsea 20% | Burnley 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chelsea vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stamford Bridge • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chelsea 74% | Draw 15% | Burnley 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 58% | xG Chelsea 2.68 / Burnley 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Chelsea attack 1.699 / def 0.855 | Burnley attack 0.779 / def 1.495 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: Chelsea (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.68
Chelsea xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Burnley xG
58%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chelsea vs Burnley kick off?
Chelsea vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stamford Bridge.
What was the final score in Chelsea vs Burnley?
Chelsea 1 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Chelsea vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Stamford Bridge.
What competition is Chelsea vs Burnley part of?
Chelsea vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Chelsea vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Chelsea a 74% chance of winning, Burnley a 11% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Chelsea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Chelsea and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Chelsea vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and Burnley?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chelsea and Burnley in?
Chelsea (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Burnley (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chelsea's attacking strength (1.70x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.68. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Chelsea's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 3-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chelsea Win
74%
1.36
15%
6.56
11%
8.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
3 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.68
Chelsea xG
Total xG
3.66
0.97
Burnley xG
1.36
74%
Home win
6.56
15%
Draw
8.90
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
7%
14.63
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
1%
130.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chelsea vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Chelsea and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 2.68 expected goals for Chelsea and 0.97 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Chelsea vs Burnley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chelsea's recent record stands at 8W 1D 1L from 10 games, a 2.50 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Chelsea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 5L across 10 games — 0.70 PPG, with D-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chelsea by 1.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Chelsea have managed 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 0W 2D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chelsea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chelsea are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chelsea have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Burnley in 60%.
Defensively: Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in 70% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chelsea
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chelsea and Burnley in coming into this match?
Chelsea have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 games (2.50 PPG), while Burnley have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chelsea at home or Burnley away?
Chelsea's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chelsea at home: 2.40 PPG; Burnley away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Chelsea or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in 70% of their recent games, Burnley in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2022, when Chelsea won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chelsea's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Chelsea
3
Draws
0
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Chelsea have won 3, Burnley have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chelsea and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Chelsea 1-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Chelsea and Burnley?
Chelsea have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chelsea 20%, Burnley 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Chelsea and 60% for Burnley. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chelsea keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Burnley in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chelsea home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chelsea play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Chelsea's recent matches and 60% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chelsea vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Chelsea's matches and 60% of Burnley's.
Chelsea and Burnley share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stamford Bridge, Regular Season - 11, as Chelsea and Burnley drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chelsea 2.68 xG and Burnley 0.97 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Chelsea fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chelsea attack 1.70 / defence 0.85 against Burnley attack 0.78 / defence 1.50, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chelsea 74% | Draw 15% | Burnley 11%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chelsea 60%, Burnley 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chelsea's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 70% of the time, and conceded here.
Burnley's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chelsea arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chelsea (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Burnley (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.