Burnley 1-1 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Burnley at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Nottingham Forest encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Nottingham Forest travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 September 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Burnley have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Burnley have posted 8W 1D 1L at Turf Moor — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Turf Moor. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Burnley are significantly better at Turf Moor than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nottingham Forest stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Nottingham Forest have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Nottingham Forest have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Burnley carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Burnley, 1 for Nottingham Forest and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Nottingham Forest winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Burnley trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 39% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Nottingham Forest trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 29% versus Nottingham Forest 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 33% | Nottingham Forest 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.23 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.792 / defence 0.965 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.963 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.152. Burnley's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Burnley games / 42 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 40% | Draw 28% | Nottingham Forest 32%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Nottingham Forest 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Burnley 40% | Nottingham Forest 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 40% | Draw 28% | Nottingham Forest 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Burnley 1.23 / Nottingham Forest 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.792 / def 0.965 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.963 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Burnley (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Nottingham Forest xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Burnley vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Nottingham Forest?
Burnley 1 - 1 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Burnley vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Burnley vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 40% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Burnley and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Nottingham Forest?
Record (2 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 1 | Nottingham Forest 1W.
What form are Burnley and Nottingham Forest in?
Burnley (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.79) and Nottingham Forest's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nottingham Forest's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
40%
2.51
28%
3.54
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.30
1.07
Nottingham Forest xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
9%
10.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Burnley and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Burnley and 1.07 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Burnley have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 24W 14D 4L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nottingham Forest's form line: 20W 9D 13L from 42 games, 1.64 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Burnley are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nottingham Forest.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Burnley have posted 2.10 PPG from 21 outings (12W 8D 1L).
On the road, Nottingham Forest have gone 10W 4D 7L from 21 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Burnley are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.45 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.48 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Early Season
Nottingham Forest
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 24W 14D 4L in their last 42 games (2.05 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 20W 9D 13L in their last 42 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Burnley's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 2.10 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Burnley or Nottingham Forest been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their recent games, Nottingham Forest in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burnley and Nottingham Forest runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2026, when Nottingham Forest won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burnley's record when hosting Nottingham Forest specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Burnley
2
Draws
2
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Nottingham Forest?
From 4 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, Nottingham Forest have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Nottingham Forest 4-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Nottingham Forest?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burnley see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 29%, Nottingham Forest 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Burnley) and 67% (Nottingham Forest).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Nottingham Forest?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Burnley's recent matches and 57% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Burnley's recent games and 67% of Nottingham Forest's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Nottingham Forest tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Nottingham Forest in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burnley and Nottingham Forest share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley and Nottingham Forest finished level at 1-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.23 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.07 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.79 / defence 0.96 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.96 / defence 1.13, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 40% | Draw 28% | Nottingham Forest 32%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 33%, Nottingham Forest 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and conceded here.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.64. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.