Burnley 2-2 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 37%, yet in-form Fulham provide a compelling counter-argument — this Burnley vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fulham make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Premier League (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Burnley (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Burnley's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Fulham's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Fulham's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Fulham are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Burnley, 0 for Fulham and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Dec 2023, ended Burnley 2–0 Fulham — a Burnley win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Burnley — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Fulham — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 52% versus Fulham 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 57% | Fulham 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.35 xG and Fulham 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.690 / defence 1.301 | Fulham attack 0.735 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.728 / away 1.390. Burnley's attack rating of 0.690 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.35. Fulham's attack rating of 0.735 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.33. Burnley's defence rating of 1.301 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fulham's projected output up. Data: built from Burnley's last 22 games and Fulham's last 60.
Result probabilities: Burnley 37% | Draw 27% | Fulham 36%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.72 | Draw 3.65 | Fulham 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fulham (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burnley if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Burnley's last 10 home games and Fulham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Burnley 50% (last 10 home games) | Fulham 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 23 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 37% | Draw 27% | Fulham 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Burnley 1.35 / Fulham 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.690 / def 1.301 | Fulham attack 0.735 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.728 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Burnley (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Fulham xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burnley vs Fulham FAQs
What time does Burnley vs Fulham kick off?
Burnley vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Fulham?
Burnley 2 - 2 Fulham.
Where is Burnley vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Fulham part of?
Burnley vs Fulham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 23) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 37% chance of winning, Fulham a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Burnley and Fulham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Burnley vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.69) and Fulham's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (0.73x) against Burnley's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Burnley's last 22 games and Fulham's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
37%
2.72
27%
3.65
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.68
1.33
Fulham xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
10%
10.26
9%
10.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burnley vs Fulham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Burnley and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Burnley and 1.33 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 29W 13D 18L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Fulham's form line: 22W 11D 27L from 60 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Burnley against 1.28 for Fulham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.73 PPG from their last 30 home games (16W 4D 10L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 8W 5D 17L from their last 30 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Burnley are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.38 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Fulham
Blended
Burnley (Home) vs Fulham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burnley
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Burnley vs Fulham Form FAQs
What form are Burnley and Fulham in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 29W 13D 18L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while Fulham have gone 22W 11D 27L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Fulham away?
Burnley's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.73 PPG; Fulham away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Burnley or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Fulham in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Burnley and Fulham, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Fulham have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Burnley
1
Draws
2
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Burnley vs Fulham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Fulham?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Burnley have won 1, Fulham have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Burnley and Fulham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Fulham 3-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 43%, Fulham 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Burnley and 57% for Fulham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Fulham in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burnley vs Fulham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burnley and Fulham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Burnley's recent matches and 50% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burnley and Fulham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Burnley's matches and 57% of Fulham's.
Do Burnley and Fulham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Burnley's recent matches and 70% of Fulham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burnley and Fulham share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 23, as Burnley and Fulham drew 2-2 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.35 xG and Fulham 1.33 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.69 / defence 1.30 against Fulham attack 0.73 / defence 1.14, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 37% | Draw 27% | Fulham 36%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 57%, Fulham 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Fulham's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.67 PPG, Fulham 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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