Burnley 0-1 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Crystal Palace (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Burnley face Crystal Palace.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burnley and Crystal Palace meet at Turf Moor in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 3 December 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Burnley have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Burnley have posted 6W 1D 3L at Turf Moor — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Burnley are significantly better at Turf Moor than their overall form suggests.
Crystal Palace (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crystal Palace away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Crystal Palace arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Burnley lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 0–3 with Crystal Palace winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Crystal Palace half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 35% versus Crystal Palace 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 37% | Crystal Palace 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.76 xG and Crystal Palace 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.670 / defence 1.040 | Crystal Palace attack 1.001 / defence 0.747. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.288. Burnley's attack strength of 0.670 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Crystal Palace's defence strength of 0.747 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 13 Burnley games / 51 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 21% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 50%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | Crystal Palace 2.00. Crystal Palace hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crystal Palace are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 40% | Crystal Palace 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Dec 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 21% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG Burnley 0.76 / Crystal Palace 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.670 / def 1.040 | Crystal Palace attack 1.001 / def 0.747 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Crystal Palace xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Burnley vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 3 December 2025 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Crystal Palace?
Burnley 0 - 1 Crystal Palace.
Where is Burnley vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Crystal Palace part of?
Burnley vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 21% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Burnley and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Crystal Palace?
Record (4 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 2 | Crystal Palace 2W.
What form are Burnley and Crystal Palace in?
Burnley (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Crystal Palace (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Burnley's attack at 0.67x the league average against Crystal Palace's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 0.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crystal Palace's attack (1.00x) against Burnley's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
21%
4.70
28%
3.54
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.10
1.34
Crystal Palace xG
4.70
21%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
6%
17.97
24%
4.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 16.4 | 11.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Burnley and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Burnley and 1.34 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burnley's recent record stands at 26W 15D 10L from 51 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have gone 18W 19D 14L across 51 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for Burnley against 1.43 for Crystal Palace. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Burnley have managed 13W 9D 3L from 25 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crystal Palace's away record stands at 10W 8D 7L across 25 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Burnley are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.33 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 26W 15D 10L in their last 51 games (1.82 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 18W 19D 14L in their last 51 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Crystal Palace away?
Burnley's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.92 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Burnley or Crystal Palace been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Crystal Palace in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Crystal Palace won 3-0 on 24 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Crystal Palace — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Burnley
2
Draws
3
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Crystal Palace?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 1, Crystal Palace have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when Crystal Palace 2-3 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Crystal Palace?
Crystal Palace have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 28%, Crystal Palace 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 24% for Burnley and 44% for Crystal Palace.
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Crystal Palace in 40%; Burnley have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Crystal Palace?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Burnley's recent matches and 48% of Crystal Palace's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Burnley's recent games and 44% of Crystal Palace's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Crystal Palace tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Crystal Palace in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crystal Palace edge out Burnley 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crystal Palace beat Burnley 0-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.76 xG and Crystal Palace 1.34 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.67 / defence 1.04 against Crystal Palace attack 1.00 / defence 0.75, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 21% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 50%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 37%, Crystal Palace 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.82 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.