Brighton 1-1 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Brighton take on Everton.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Everton make the trip to Amex Stadium to face Brighton in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Brighton's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brighton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brighton have posted 5W 4D 1L at Amex Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Brighton are significantly better at Amex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Everton have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Everton are 0.70 PPG clear of Brighton in recent Premier League fixtures (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Brighton 3W, Everton 4W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Everton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Brighton — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Everton — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brighton 70% versus Everton 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brighton 64% | Everton 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brighton 0.93 xG and Everton 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brighton attack 0.976 / defence 0.930 | Everton attack 0.841 / defence 0.649. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.234. Everton's defence strength of 0.649 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 61 Brighton games / 61 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brighton 30% | Draw 39% | Everton 31%. Fair-value odds: Brighton 3.33 | Draw 2.56 | Everton 3.23. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Brighton 70% | Everton 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brighton vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Amex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brighton 30% | Draw 39% | Everton 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 41% | xG Brighton 0.93 / Everton 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Brighton attack 0.976 / def 0.930 | Everton attack 0.841 / def 0.649 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Brighton xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Everton xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brighton vs Everton kick off?
Brighton vs Everton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Amex Stadium.
What was the final score in Brighton vs Everton?
Brighton 1 - 1 Everton.
Where is Brighton vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Amex Stadium.
What competition is Brighton vs Everton part of?
Brighton vs Everton is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Brighton vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Brighton a 30% chance of winning, Everton a 31% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Brighton vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Brighton and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Brighton vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brighton and Everton?
Record (9 meetings): Brighton 3W | Draws 2 | Everton 4W.
What form are Brighton and Everton in?
Brighton (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Everton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Brighton's attack at 0.98x the league average against Everton's defence at 0.65x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Everton's attack (0.84x) against Brighton's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.38
39%
2.56
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Brighton xG
Total xG
1.90
0.96
Everton xG
3.38
30%
Home win
2.56
39%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
11%
8.86
12%
8.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 14.5 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brighton vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Brighton and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Brighton and 0.96 for Everton, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Brighton vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Brighton have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 23W 22D 16L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Brighton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton's form line: 20W 21D 20L from 61 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Brighton against 1.33 for Everton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Brighton have posted 1.73 PPG from 30 outings (13W 13D 4L).
On the road, Everton have gone 11W 8D 11L from 30 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Brighton are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.10 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brighton have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brighton
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brighton and Everton in coming into this match?
Brighton have gone 23W 22D 16L in their last 61 games (1.49 PPG), while Everton have gone 20W 21D 20L in their last 61 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brighton at home or Everton away?
Brighton's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brighton at home: 1.73 PPG; Everton away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Brighton or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brighton have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Everton in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton won 1-5 on 8 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brighton have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Brighton
3
Draws
4
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brighton and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Brighton have won 3, Everton have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Brighton and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Brighton 1-1 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Brighton and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brighton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Everton see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brighton 73%, Everton 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Brighton) and 23% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Everton in 37%; Everton in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brighton home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brighton play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Brighton's recent matches and 33% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brighton vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Brighton's recent games and 23% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brighton and Everton tend to score early?
Brighton have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Everton in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brighton and Everton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Amex Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Brighton and Everton drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brighton 0.93 xG and Everton 0.96 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brighton attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against Everton attack 0.84 / defence 0.65, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brighton 30% | Draw 39% | Everton 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brighton 64%, Everton 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brighton's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Everton's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brighton 1.49 PPG, Everton 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.