Bournemouth 1-1 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bournemouth (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bournemouth face Everton.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bournemouth and Everton meet at Vitality Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bournemouth's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bournemouth have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bournemouth at Vitality Stadium this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Everton have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Bournemouth. A 0.80 PPG lead over Everton (1.70 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bournemouth have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Everton in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bournemouth lead 5W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Bournemouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Bournemouth half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Everton half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 67% versus Everton 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 56% | Everton 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.56 xG and Everton 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.015 / defence 0.985 | Everton attack 0.989 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.613 / away 1.159. Data: 39 Bournemouth games / 39 Everton games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 47% | Draw 26% | Everton 27%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Everton 3.70. Bournemouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bournemouth at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bournemouth if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 80% | Everton 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 47% | Draw 26% | Everton 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Bournemouth 1.56 / Everton 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.015 / def 0.985 | Everton attack 0.989 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.613 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Everton xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Everton kick off?
Bournemouth vs Everton kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Everton?
Bournemouth 1 - 1 Everton.
Where is Bournemouth vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Everton part of?
Bournemouth vs Everton is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 47% chance of winning, Everton a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Bournemouth and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Everton?
Record (8 meetings): Bournemouth 5W | Draws 0 | Everton 3W.
What form are Bournemouth and Everton in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Everton (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bournemouth's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Everton's attack (0.99x) against Bournemouth's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.84
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.69
1.13
Everton xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
6%
17.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.13 for Everton, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Bournemouth have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 13W 18D 8L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bournemouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Everton's form line: 14W 10D 15L from 39 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Bournemouth against 1.33 for Everton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bournemouth have posted 1.63 PPG from 19 outings (7W 10D 2L).
On the road, Everton have gone 7W 5D 7L from 19 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Bournemouth are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.26 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Early Season
Everton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Everton in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 13W 18D 8L in their last 39 games (1.46 PPG), while Everton have gone 14W 10D 15L in their last 39 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Everton away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.63 PPG; Everton away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Everton in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bournemouth won 3-0 on 12 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bournemouth have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Bournemouth
1
Draws
3
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Everton?
From 9 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 5, Everton have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Bournemouth 1-1 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Everton?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bournemouth see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Everton see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 63%, Everton 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Bournemouth) and 37% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Everton in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Everton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Bournemouth's games and 47% of Everton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bournemouth vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Bournemouth's recent games and 37% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Bournemouth and Everton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Bournemouth and Everton drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.56 xG and Everton 1.13 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Everton attack 0.99 / defence 0.95, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 47% | Draw 26% | Everton 27%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 56%, Everton 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Everton's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.46 PPG, Everton 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.